April 27, 2015

EXCLUSIVE: Alberta election poll shows NDP surge in PC ridings

Marc PatroneRebel Commentator
 

An exclusive poll paints a radically different electoral picture of two suburban Calgary ridings than what historically has been the norm.

For decades, the PC party has counted on Calgary's suburban ridings for their bedrock level of support.

In the survey by Abingdon Research; Albertans living in Calgary Shaw and Calgary North West were asked the following question:

"If a provincial election were held today to elect a new government in Edmonton which party would you vote for in your local riding?"

A survey of 467 residents in Calgary Shaw found the NDP and Wildrose running first and second, while PC candidate Jeff Wilson; one of nine floorcrossing ex-Wildrosers is running third.  

PARTY          All Voters         Decided Voters
PC                    22%                 26%
Wildrose        24%                 29%
NDP                 29%                 35%


In the riding of Calgary North West, the story is similar except Wildrose is leading the NDP by four points while the third place PC candidate's support is in the mid 20s.

PARTY          All Voters           Decided Voters
PC                  21%                  25%
Wildrose      28%                   33%
NDP               24%                   29%


The strength of the NDP may be due in part to leader Rachel Notley's performance in last week's leaders debate but some point to other factors, including widespread dissatisfaction with the PC budget that hikes dozens of taxes for Albertans.

Some analysts also point to last December's floor crossings by Wildrose MLAs as a source of resentment for Albertans who see it as an attempt by PC leader Jim Prentice to undermine the democratic will of voters.
     
PC insiders can take some comfort in the fact much can change in the last week, as evidenced by the dramatic reversal in the last few days of the 2012 campaign when the PCs came from behind to win a majority.
     
But this poll suggests unless voting intentions change dramatically between now and election day, Alberta will have a very different political landscape after May 5th.


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Comments
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commented 2015-04-28 19:26:14 -0400
Mark Borzel – “I wonder if there’s a way to sue the MSM over influence-peddling in their “election coverage”…?”

Sure, if you have enough money.
commented 2015-04-28 19:26:14 -0400
Mark Borzel – “I wonder if there’s a way to sue the MSM over influence-peddling in their “election coverage”…?”

Sure, if you have enough money.
commented 2015-04-28 18:31:41 -0400
Future of NDP Alberta:
Mark Steyn: Liberal Policies And The Bankruptcy Of Detroit
commented 2015-04-28 12:50:57 -0400
From practical terms, most of people here – true conservatives, must help WR to win WHAT EVER IT TAKES meaning convince maximum possible contacts to vote for WR.
Unfortunately here we are talking to ourselves mostly as most readers/ contributors here are WR supporters. We have to go out, guys!
NDP Government is REAL danger (PC is not much better) we have to face accordingly, please do not underestimate power of crowd to make stupid decisions against own interests, this is what they usually do anyway.
commented 2015-04-28 12:31:43 -0400
If the people of Alberta are leaning toward the NDP because they don’t like the Prentice tax proposals then they are unbelievable naive. I also wonder how many of those polled lived in ridings that had former WR MLA’s now rerunning as PC’s, because I could see that helping to rig the results of the poll. I can well understand voters being ticked off by their elected representative crossing the floor. If I were in their place I’d be madder then hell (but not mad enough to vote socialist).
commented 2015-04-28 12:04:21 -0400
Thanks to the NDP’s long tenure in Sask and BC’s love of unions, I’ve now lived in Alberta for 39 thriving years and until the last 2 elections voted PC. But never again. And I don’t believe NDP has any more respect for taxpayer dollars than PC does.
commented 2015-04-28 11:42:55 -0400
It really bothers me when media talk about Notley winning the debate. I watched it, she talks well but being a good speaker does not run a successful government. Anyone heard of Obama!!!!
commented 2015-04-28 11:17:51 -0400
Careful, Albertan brothers and sisters! You only need to look west to see what happens when you consider NDP as a legitimate choice to form government. Eventually they gain power and chaos, corruption, deficits, and recession soon follow. Anyone voting NDP is wasting their vote, and playing with fire.
commented 2015-04-28 10:01:10 -0400
Does ANYBODY believe these polls? Are these polls even accurate? (Never mind that this story is reporting on only TWO ridings in Calgary… what about the rest of the ridings in Alberta?) Sure, there may be a public surge of support for the NDP in Alberta, but it’s the same result as Quebec — this is nothing more than a protest vote. These same polls predicted a majority NDP government in BC (Liberal landslide), a Wildrose majority here in Alberta last election (just who is in power right now?), a Conservative minority in Ontario (which party is Wynne, again?)… are these polls even accurate? A couple of commenters made mention of the telephone “surveys” about this upcoming election; I had one myself, last evening. I let the automated voice get two sentences in before I hung up. It ain’t none of their damned business who I vote for, and they get no advance warning. With that in mind, and even with the above stats saying there’s at least 15% undecided/undeclared voters in these two ridings, these stated polls are nothing more than propaganda. Prentice has told many lies to us, but he’s correct when he says that Alberta is NOT an NDP province.

I wonder if there’s a way to sue the MSM over influence-peddling in their “election coverage”…?
commented 2015-04-28 08:59:48 -0400
Ron Bissett, I know your comment was directed at Marc, however it appears to me that your assessment of the state of the PC party is accurate, from my point of view.

To those who claim the Wildrose party does not have the experience to run a province, I ask you, how much experience did the PC party have when they took over from the Social Credit party? How much does the socialist NDP party have now?

Conservatives of Alberta, if you are thinking of voting NDP, I ask you, socialist? You would vote for an inexperienced socialist party rather than vote for an inexperienced Conservative party?

It is the main stream media that is against the Wildrose. They are the ones filling peoples’ ears with fear of the Wildrose. It is the MSM that are once again trying to interfere with democracy in Alberta, just like they did last election. The self proclaimed champions of democracy regularly interfere with democracy to get their way.

People need to stop listening the to left wing socialist CBC, CTV, Global, Toronto ‘red’ Star, Ottawa Citizen, Globe & Mail. They have a hate-on for the Wildrose because the Wildrose is Conservative and the MSM will do all they can to interfere with Alberta’s election.
commented 2015-04-28 08:38:57 -0400
I was called as part of this survey. If I recall correctly, the question of “which party do you think is best placed to stop the Wildrose Party?” was several questions before “Which party do you plan to vote for in the coming election?” and “do you plan to vote in the coming election?” Nothing new here, the questions were configured to separate out the Wildrose voters and organize everyone else under the “most likely to win” banner. The earlier questions coached the respondents into considering the ND more favourably. The survey didn’t call them the NDP, only the ND. I wonder why that was, perhaps brand awareness?

The question I would most like to have seen the general answer to was “Which party is your second choice?”, because I suspect that most Wildrose supporters would have given the same answer that I did, “none”.
commented 2015-04-28 07:47:18 -0400
People don’t change unless there are consequences to their bad behaviour. It sounds trite but it is so true. Until the PC Party is dealt a severe consequence, they will continue to take the electorate for granted. The only favourable outcome is one that sends a strong message to the PC Party , top to bottom that the citizens of Alberta are fed up and want strong fiscal leadership and stewardship of their province.
commented 2015-04-28 06:26:13 -0400
Here I though it couldn’t get any worse politically for Alberta. But if the NDP get in, in any force, this will signal the death bells for the prosperity of that province. The left have surged in the PC party, that’s natural because of the “progressive” branch of that party gaining strength. Really the only true “conservative” party is the “Wild Rose” party. If Albertans don’t come to realize this soon, they will have to become comfortable with high taxes, big unions controlling the agenda, and special interest groups being in charge.
commented 2015-04-28 06:04:11 -0400
If Albertans are stupid enough to elect a bunch of communist pigs, then they deserve all the rot, corruption and long term damage that goes with it.

The stupids in Ontario voted in Pig Wynne – who is pushing sex-education curriculum built by a convicted pedophile. And of course then there’s Pig Wynne’s $0.3 TRILLION debt that those in Ontario are paying for.

Enjoy Alberta – vote those communist pigs in and get ready for a retail sales tax too.
commented 2015-04-28 02:25:55 -0400
Marc… I want you to know how much I appreciate your succinct summaries of the Alberta election. You’re doing a fantastic job! I don’t even bother to watch anyone else’s coverage anymore, because they have nothing to say.

There is something I’d like to hear more about, though. I want to know if my theory that this election has exposed and rooted out the Progressive left from the PC party and sent them home where they should have been roosting all along; the NDP. Plus, it has exposed the remainder of the PC party for what they have truly been for a long time; primarily Liberals. And, those who are truly Conservative are suddenly, but reluctantly realizing the Wild Rose Party is what the PC party once was before the silent infiltration of the progressive left. With that said, the most incideous lie being told to keep the rest of the conservatives from coming to their senses and gathering the courage to make the move to the Wildrose is that they don’t have the experience to run a government. To that I say: Niether does the NDP and from all accounts, the PCs haven’t shown they have much experience, either.

Do you think there’s anything to what I believe or am I missing something?

Again… You’re doing a great job. Thanks. So happy you’re on board.
commented 2015-04-28 01:38:18 -0400
At the end of the day, Prentice-PC will win. Whatever the situations will be. Prentice offerings are too ‘bland’ for us, BUT that is better than what other ‘parties’ will be offering > which will be too ‘salty’, that will bring the Albertans into great pain and sorrow. Better to choose the lesser evil… When oil prices comes back, then we have to voice out for cutting taxes in which will be used by this politicians in the next election. This is like riding a ‘ferries wheel’…
commented 2015-04-28 00:21:58 -0400
In Alberta it is very similar. Prentice still fights that comparison. The corporate tax thing that he back tracked on, but the fact is he wants to tax up the butt. He is no better, no matter how he objects.
commented 2015-04-28 00:14:18 -0400
Just goes to show that the PC and the NDP ideology is very similar.
commented 2015-04-27 22:56:58 -0400
That means only one choice. I think Wildrose just might do this.
commented 2015-04-27 22:55:18 -0400
Right you are Peter.
They don’t call it the Alberta advantage for nothing. It has proven merit and benefit. Hobbling the money makers has repercussions, a simple fact the left seem unable to comprehend. Or refuse to.
commented 2015-04-27 22:46:28 -0400
The NDP will raise the corporate taxes.

Now this may sound good on the surface because who doesn’t want the corporations to pay more?

But here are is the reason raising the corporate tax rate is a bad idea … … because WE, the consumers and employees, will pay for that tax increase, not the corporations.

How do I know this? It is all based upon one very important immutable truth about corporations, and that is:

Corporations absolutely MUST maintain their profit margin or they will lose investors.

1. Investors invest because they make money off of the profits.
2. If profits go down, the investors lose money.
3. If the investors lose money, they will cash out their stocks and put them into a corporation that is not losing profit.
4. If the corporation loses their investors, the corporation will scale back severely or more likely close altogether.

So, the corporations will do all they can to not lose that profit margin. It is as simple as that. So how do they do that?

1. They will work the cost of the corporate tax increase into their products and/or services. This means the consumer will pay for the corporate tax increase.
2. They will decrease their expenses by laying off employees. Employees are the single largest expense to any business.
3. They will curb or even halt any expansion. No expansion means no new jobs and no new economic activity (such as hiring contractors to build buildings, ordering new machinery from Ontario manufacturing plants, etc)

Raising the corporate tax rate will not ‘stick it to the corporations’, but it WILL stick it to us, the consumer and the employees.
commented 2015-04-27 22:26:38 -0400
Somehow ricocheted back to the Conservatives? Turncoat and Prentice are surprised? All that crossing did was help to ensure the Redford Conservatives via Prentice would not be getting in. Prentice took an awful lot for granted didn’t he.
commented 2015-04-27 21:58:43 -0400
Good riddance to the PC’s. They have had a majority dictatorship for decades. That always leads to incompetence and a sense of ownership.