July 08, 2016

Alberta, Ontario in record debt — while Quebec runs a surplus. So can they start paying equalization now?

Ezra LevantRebel Commander
 

This news caught me by surprise: the government of Quebec has run a surplus. This hasn’t happened in my entire lifetime. The city of Montreal has a huge surplus, too.

Compare that to Alberta, and even Ontario, which now has the largest debt in the world of any jurisdiction that isn’t its own country.

And Quebec is in the black?

So can we stop paying them equalization payments now? Quebec has received billions of dollars a year in subsidies from other provinces, particularly Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Well, no.

Because Alberta’s socialist finance minister, Joe Ceci, doesn’t want to stop paying.

Ceci is a socialist (and he’s a social worker, who always make the best finance ministers), so of course he wants maximum tax dollars for him and his public sector union friends.

He’d actually rather have money leave Alberta than stay there...

NEXT: Vincent Geloso, an economist from the Montreal Economic Institute, talks about Quebec's surplus, and what it means for the province — and the country.

THEN: Duane Bratt, Political Science Professor from Mount Royal University, joins me to discuss Jason Kenney's run for leader of the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party.

Comments
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commented 2016-07-12 12:11:31 -0400
By your own math Andrew, the equalization formula is the provincial pop divided by gdp, so Sask with a pop of 1 million, with less social benifits as Quebec (5000 per child born, multi generational welfare, more infrastructure) cannot ever get out of paying equalization because the Quebec government spends more per person than Sask could ever do without defaulting on provincial loans.
So you see the smaller pop ends up supporting the large population, because it’s just not big enough or should I say sovereign enough. In the end I guess it will come down to how long we want to put up with this bull, cause to me it sounds like slavery with extra steps.
commented 2016-07-11 17:43:28 -0400
So in time, we should see the formula push AB out of the payment column?
commented 2016-07-11 17:40:37 -0400
WTF?! Does AB still pay equalization. What is the formula? Is it “You are all rednecks so you will pay now until the end of humanity?”.
commented 2016-07-11 06:13:08 -0400
Get rid of those damn progressives and just have conservatives in leadership of Conservative Party. I wont vote for any party with progressives. Otherwise Kenney is who I would vote for.
commented 2016-07-11 00:14:03 -0400
LOL, best joke I’ve heard in ages. Thanks Ezra.
commented 2016-07-10 14:46:14 -0400
I laid out the scenario we are facing today in conversations with my Alberta countrymen years ago. I was laughed at, and ridiculed. “that could never happen here” they confidently replied, well… here we are. In my opinion, based on observation, Albertans are paying a steep price for a mixture of arrogance, and apathy.
commented 2016-07-09 23:19:24 -0400
The 1st question that begs to be asked, how much extra money is Ottawa pumping into québec, whether over the table or under it?
commented 2016-07-09 18:19:46 -0400
I’ll look into it Andrew. Thanks’

;)
commented 2016-07-09 17:49:54 -0400
Quebec also has hydro and the means to blackmail NL with respect to that province’s hydro. Yet NL, as a new have, pays the welfare to Quebec on top of the blackmail.

Yep, I think Baby Doc’s comment that Quebec is Canada was mistranslated from Quebec uses Canada.
commented 2016-07-09 17:37:03 -0400
I still have not figured out, beyond laziness, why Quebec is a have not province. They have control of the seaway, they have agriculture, they have forestry, they have mining, they have shale, they have a fishery, they used to have a financial sector until they drove it out, they have manufacturing except Bombardier is as much a beggar as is Quebec’s government.

So how can they possibly be a have not province like PEI. At least PEI makes sense because it has the population of a small city in BC with less resources.
commented 2016-07-09 16:23:14 -0400
The problem is the people who give in to these accusations instead of just laughing and then continuing with what they were doing.
commented 2016-07-09 15:20:10 -0400
“Nnaumbua Farrell commented 2 hours ago
No but seriouslys Andrews, to whats year weres you referring about per capita revenue in Ontario? "

Any recent year works. 2015-16 works great. Divide total revenues by total population. Which province is lower than Ontario? You won’t find any. BC is second place, but even that province takes in something like a thousand dollars more per capita than Ontario does. “Conservative” Saskatchewan is several thousand more than Ontario and running a comparable deficit at the same time.
commented 2016-07-09 15:16:14 -0400
Your criticism is entirely typo based? Hmm.

You’re right, Netterville. Fiscal capacity is totally and utterly independent from GDP. The two are totally, completely not slightly different calculations of teh* same thing.

*Oh, look, “teh”. Clearly I am wrong LOL.
commented 2016-07-09 14:33:05 -0400
I take it, Nnaumbua Farrell, that you are not falling for Andrews’ excuse that he puts in typos to “catch the trolls”? Me neither. A rather feeble excuse.

But the irony was rich, claiming he is a scientist while spelling it wrong!
commented 2016-07-09 14:24:34 -0400
Andrew Stephenson replied back to my charge that he does not know how the provincial equalization payments are calculated with, “That would be why I put the caveat “approximately” in my claim,”

Andrew, there is “approximately” about upon which the calculation is made. It has nothing at all whatsoever to do with the GDP of the province.

Andrew decided to further dig himself into a hole by saying, "Although it is correct they don’t use actual GDP numbers, both equalization and GDP calculations are based on similar datasets. "

No Andrew, wrong again. The dataset of the various taxes taken from the tax payer and natural resource royalty income taken from the resource extraction corporations is a completely different dataset from the GDP dataset which derives its’ value from the provincial sale of finished products and services.

Not the same datasets at all. This is why socialists like Andrew Stephenson completely trash the economies over which they have control, because they cannot understand how financial assets versed taxation assets are calculated
commented 2016-07-09 13:30:07 -0400
No but seriouslys Andrews, to whats year weres you referring about per capita revenue in Ontario?
commented 2016-07-09 13:07:10 -0400
" so you can sell it to the chattering classes for eight dollars a moth. "

http://www.therebel.media/press_progress_launches_kenneywatch_day_three_of_epic_cry_baby_left_wing_freakout_in_alberta

W… Wait. Yooooooou… that was ANOTHER typo test and I failed again. Aw man! I’m not a scientists, not a scientists!
commented 2016-07-09 12:57:26 -0400
Andrew Stephenson said:

“Sometimes I deliberately include typos to pick out the trolls who dislike my comments but who can’t actually provide a factual rebuttal. It gives an indication of the petty and dumb sorts that successful people can ignore. It’s surprisingly effective :) "

LOL

My apologys Andews, I hads nos ideas.

So people who nit pick on typos are petty and dumb. I’ll keeps that in mind Andrew. Thanks yous sir:

http://www.therebel.media/chevron_exxon_invest_36_billion_in_kazakhstan_instead_of_alberta

Andrew Stephenson said:

““lawrence o’byrne commented 2 hours ago
stephenson ,the only trash is your BS comment, like i said go to the CBC site ,your an idiotic troll "

*you’re.

:) "
commented 2016-07-09 12:38:43 -0400
“The fact that the Rebel, instead of talking about how great a job Kenney is going to do, is again playing the professional victim, tells us that they re terrified about the simple facts”

Hey Andrew, It’s “they’re” not “they re.”

http://www.therebel.media/ezra_levant_july_7
commented 2016-07-09 12:37:11 -0400
“This has made Ontario the largest sub national borrower in the world.””

As I said in my comment, the superlative originates in the simple fact that Ontario is the single biggest government of its type on the planet. The closest comparison is actually Quebec, and they have millions fewer people.

Unless, of course, you can think of a better comparison point. As I said, the potential competitors are overwhelmingly in the third world (and often don’t have published debt figures, or are American states (which are much less involved entities, such that California, which has three times the population of Ontario, has a smaller government). Can you go through that list and name which single government there would be most comparable with Ontario, if you disagree with my assessment of Quebec as such?
commented 2016-07-09 12:32:22 -0400
“Andrew Stephenson is wrong about the method of calculation of the provincial equalization payments. "

That would be why I put the caveat “approximately” in my claim, as an acknowledgement of the gross oversimplification of my comments. Although it is correct they don’t use actual GDP numbers, both equalization and GDP calculations are based on similar datasets.
commented 2016-07-09 12:30:13 -0400
“Nnaumbua Farrell commented 5 mins ago
“but that’s why I’m a scientists and you are a bag boy at the grocery store. "

It’s “scientist” Andrew. Uuuum. Yah. Are you sure you’re a scientists… I mean scientist Andrew? "

Sometimes I deliberately include typos to pick out the trolls who dislike my comments but who can’t actually provide a factual rebuttal. It gives an indication of the petty and dumb sorts that successful people can ignore. It’s surprisingly effective :)
commented 2016-07-09 12:29:32 -0400
“but that’s why I’m a scientists and you are a bag boy at the grocery store. "

Ah the eternal love and lack of contempt of lefties for the working man. Stupid conservatives always looking down on people!
commented 2016-07-09 12:23:07 -0400
“but that’s why I’m a scientists and you are a bag boy at the grocery store. "

It’s “scientist” Andrew. Uuuum. Yah. Are you sure you’re a scientists… I mean scientist Andrew?
commented 2016-07-09 09:21:35 -0400
Andrew Stephenson is wrong about the method of calculation of the provincial equalization payments.

Andrew said it is based upon the provincial GDP. Wrong. The Gross Domestic Product is the monetary value of finished goods and services.

The Provincial Equalization is calculated upon five categories: personal income taxes, business income taxes, consumption taxes, property taxes and natural resource revenues.

Even natural resource revenues does not qualify as finished goods or services.

Here is the proof of what I have said;

http://www.lop.parl.gc.ca/content/lop/ResearchPublications/2008-20-e.htm
commented 2016-07-09 09:05:06 -0400
Quebec as far as I know still gets Transfers and Equalization. So, its not surprising they would have a surplus.
Second, Harper made sure Quebec got those F35 Jobs building parts for the Jet. And their Aerospace Industry is doing well and the Gov’t has been funding that.
Third, how many years can they go on with getting next to free hydro and not do well. They get cheep gas because of the market condition and next to free hydro.
Fourth, I don’t know how much this has to do with it, but with a separatist Gov’t out of the way the place must be doing better emotionally which will bring the economy up. And after all that stimulus that Harper put in when it really was Ontario and Alberta that got kicked in the teeth, its no wonder that Quebec is doing well, they didn’t take the biggest part of the hit and still got a large portion of stimulus money.

Soon enough the equalization will change to match the situation on the ground.
commented 2016-07-09 01:41:44 -0400
If you’re expecting Quebec to pay into confederal transfers for the first time, I have a number that will get you a date with a Bleury Street virgin.
commented 2016-07-09 01:31:00 -0400
Andrew, a little nugget you might have missed: “In nine years, the current Ontario government has more than doubled the debt. For the first time, a Canadian province has $296 billion in debt, and will surpass $300 billion this July. This has made Ontario the largest sub national borrower in the world.” http://theprovince.com/opinion/christine-van-geyn-and-jordan-bateman-ontario-could-learn-a-thing-or-two-from-b-c-about-budgets
commented 2016-07-09 00:37:13 -0400
With Jason Kenney’s arrival, Alberta has a chance to step out of the swamp that the NDP has put them in. Jason has many talents and should be successful as he is not in the job of choosing Immigrants and Refugees. No one in recent history brought more 3rd World scum and life-time Welfare people into Canada than Kenney. That is until Trudeau.