May 16, 2016

Predictions revisited — and what's next for Trump, Bernie and Hillary

Mitch WolfeRebel Blogger
 

As I predicted here in February when Trump won the New Hampshire Republican primary, Trump went on to take the GOP nomination. OK, I also said Bernie Sanders would take down Hillary Clinton before the Democratic convention. But I stand by my belief that Trump will destroy Clinton in the general election for president.

I also have been writing for months that Clinton is “toast." The polls are finally catching up with me. 

After months of head-to-head polls, in which Clinton had a double-digit lead over Trump, a recent Quinnipiac poll had Trump tied with Clinton in the two crucial swing states of Florida and Pennsylvania.

The same poll saw Trump besting Clinton 43-39 in the bell weather state of Ohio. Note that no presidential candidate has won the presidency since 1960 without winning at least two of these three critical states.

Predictably, Clinton’s highly paid spin doctors quickly dismiss this poll as an anomaly, put out by an outlier polling group.

That is, until the following day, when the better-known Reuters-Ipsos group published roughly the same result. But this poll had Trump virtually tied with the stumbling Hillary, nationwide!

But the best poll was yet to come, showing Trump leading by 10 points against Clinton with Hispanics.

According to this poll, Trump’s populist economics, which appeal to working class white Americans, is also resonating with Hispanics who are just as concerned about bread and butter issues. They don't like the idea of illegal immigrants taking jobs their jobs, either!

Before the New York primary, Trump seemed stuck at under 35 per cent support, among supposedly angry white American working class men and women.

But after New York primary gave Trump a majority, it became clear that his support was widespread and broad-based: Young and senior, women and men, urban and suburban. He garnered support from key Hispanic and ethnic groups as well.

Then Trump won decisive majorities in the nearby northeastern states of New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware, and beat Cruz for good in the conservative evangelical state of Indiana.

With no remaining opposition, Trump romped to victory in the West Virginia primary.

All this time, Clinton has been stumbling badly.

She is a terrible and unlikable campaigner. The more people see and hear her speak, the more people are turned off.

In March in Ohio, Clinton blundered terribly. In attempt to suck up to climate change eco interests, she bragged insensitively that she would, “put a lot of coal miners and coal businesses out of business.”

Well, in May those comments came back to bite her in the posterior in West Virginia coal country. Sanders beat Clinton badly, while other Democrats crossed party lines to vote for Trump.

Typically, Clinton refused to properly apologize for those comments, citing that they'd been taken “out of context”.

The fact is that for the last few months, Hillary has been getting beaten by a 70-something socialist, forced to fight Sanders from her left and Trump from the right.

The GOP establishment is grudgingly unifying behind Trump because many Republicans hate Hillary more, and his numbers are clearly improving.

My political instincts tell me that even the above polls are behind the curve.

I believe Trump is leading Cinton now by more than 10 points.

And I predict even her last remaining fire wall -- that of black men and women -- will fall. 

Comments
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commented 2016-05-18 14:24:17 -0400
What’s next for Trump? Numbers and historical percentages dictate Trumps is destined to either sit in the oval office or be disposed of by America’s enemies both foreign and domestic.

Trump is a flawed man, like we all are but he is a master negotiator and regardless of what his politics are he is perceived to fill a need of a broad spectrum of the popular vote who see him as unconnected to the corrupt political system they no longer trust.

The old truism that in politics perception is fact and Trump is perceived to be a man of the people by those people, a vast central constituency of them, so media and political aristocracy be damned, he’s going to be the next POTUS unless there is a tragic event to prevent that – this is why I fear for him.

He has the trust of the people and the hatred of the establishment – like Lincoln, Kennedy, Reagan.
commented 2016-05-18 00:57:52 -0400
Bob,

I have a job and will happily take your money in November? Let’s bet.
commented 2016-05-17 18:27:20 -0400
I think you are too upbeat. Clinton could call Trump on the fact that he hasn’t had one speech where he hasn’t stretched the truth. Or worse, Trump goes Romney on us, and waters down his positions.
commented 2016-05-16 23:17:32 -0400
Michael, I believe you should start looking for a job as you will owe a lot in November.
commented 2016-05-16 21:16:01 -0400
Are you willing to put your money where your mouth is and bet that Trump will beat Hillary? If so – I would HAPPILY take that bet.