May 04, 2016

Why Trump beat Cruz in conservative evangelical Indiana

Mitch WolfeRebel Blogger

As predicted, the Indiana Republican voters handed Donald Trump an overwhelming victory on Tuesday. Trump demolished Cruz 53% to 36% with the hapless Kasich getting only a pathetic 7% of the vote.

Cruz has suspended his campaign. Trump now has a clear path to sewing up the GOP nomination for President.

Indiana was supposed to be Ted Cruz’s fire wall, the state that was going to stop the Trump train in its tracks. A resounding victory in Indiana may have provided Cruz with the opportunity to beat Donald Trump in a contested GOP convention on the second or third ballot.

Note that over 50% of the GOP electorate in Indiana are white evangelicals. These are Cruz’s peeps!

And Cruz secured the endorsement of conservative Republican governor, Mike Pence, reputedly a hero of the religious right. 

So where did Cruz go wrong?

Firstly, Cruz fatally misread the Indiana electorate.

In the last few weeks, Cruz had hammered Trump as being soft on religious liberty on behalf of the Christian right. In other words, Trump was pro gay, pro same sex marriage, pro LGBTQ rights, especially the right of transgender people to use the washroom of their choice, and the right of gay couples to get wedding cakes from Christian bakers.

Cruz failed to realize that although Indiana is a conservative state, neither the evangelicals or the Tea Party types have significant influence over the state's politics.

Indiana Republicans adhere more to Main Street values: small business, small conservative government, without the emphasis on social conservatism.

Secondly, the evangelical voters in Indiana appear to be choosing Trump over Cruz and Kasich on economic and national security issues. That's what Republican evangelicals did in Mississippi, where 84 % of the GOP voters self-identified as evangelicals. In that primary, Trump won 48% to 39% of the evangelicals. Trump beat Cruz among evangelicals in South Carolina by 33% to 27%.

Note even Indiana Governor Pence’s endorsement of Cruz appeared lukewarm. In fact, he almost sounded like he was endorsing Trump:

I particularly want to commend Donald Trump, who I think has given voice to the frustration of millions of working Americans with a lack of progress in Washington, D.C. And I'm also particularly grateful that Donald Trump has taken a strong stand for Hoosier jobs when we saw jobs in the Carrier company abruptly announce leaving Indiana not for another state but for Mexico. (...) I'm grateful for his voice in the national debate.

Frankly, that was one of the strongest, most thoughtful, and most genuine comments in favour of Trump by any government official during these primaries.

Thirdly, Cruz’s coalition gambit with Kasich also hurt his Indiana campaign.

A recent poll concluded that about 60% of the Indiana voters were opposed to the Cruz/Kasich coalition, the terms of which stipulated that Kasich supporters were encouraged to support Cruz in Indiana. Except  Kasich supporters were sticking with Kasich, note his 13% support in a recent WSJ/NBC poll.

I believe that Indiana voters rejected Cruz in part because this ridiculous coalition idea reeked of sleazy backroom politics, with the sole goal of stopping Trump, and not advancing any policies of interest to Indiana voters.

Lastly, for those Trump critics who are still deluded into thinking that Trump is a buffoon and a joke, he has pulled off an incredible political upset.

He beat Senator Ted Cruz in the heart of socially conservative, evangelical Indiana, by being his own guy and sticking to his strong economic message in favour of hard-working and middle income groups, while still supporting gender and sexual equality.

Note Trump specifically did not pander to the extreme right wing social conservatives of the GOP.

Accordingly, unlike Romney before him, Trump will be able to pivot to the centre without social conservative baggage, and take on Hillary where she is weakest: improving the economy for the working and middle income groups. 

Hillary, you should be scared. Be very scared of The Donald.




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commented 2016-05-05 11:52:57 -0400
Pundits have been aligned with the republican elite – you can see them choking on their cud during talk shows now, as they face a Trump presidency. I stopped watching Fox News because I couldn’t tolerate seeing MeGYN Kelly, Karl Rove, and some of the other talking heads constantly trying to undermine Trump. Even CNN seemed to have a less biased approach – go figure (hadn’t watched CNN in years). I suspect that President Trump might not be a big fan of socialist Canada.
commented 2016-05-04 18:57:25 -0400
That’s why I ignore shows like CNN or even mainstream conservative shows that say Women and Minorities will not vote for Trump.

Hispanics are fed up with illegal Hispanics taking their jobs, Strong Women are fed up with Weak Feminists like Clinton only thinking she should have the job because they are Women.

Let’s not forget a large segment of the White, Male population who are fed up with politically correct politicians afraid to stand up for the white male bashing from the social left for idiotically fearing being called a bigot because of it by such bigots from the left.

When Mike Harris stated he would repeal employment equity laws, he got a lot of votes from white guys who never voted conservative before

Finally, people are fed up with Conservative fiscal policies catering to selfish big business, like NAFTA where you treat Mexico paying people $3 and hour the same as Canada/USA that pay $10 – good for big businesses who relocate there.

Or fed up with fiscal policies geared to not offending bigot card playing special interest groups, which was why Harper never touched getting rid of billion dollar failed social engineering like official bilingualism and multicuiteralism
commented 2016-05-04 13:18:06 -0400
Kelly Weber: America is already fu**ed up under Obama. Donald Trump is going to straighten it out, but I doubt that we will hear any mea culpas from you or your ilk.
commented 2016-05-04 12:42:33 -0400
@ weber , better than watching the sleaze clinton turn the country over to the so called social justice warriors, the muslim free loaders and and BLM and the gay community and the transgenders and the illegals and getting American citizens murdered by terrorist in Benghazi and trying to edit the damning reports with the aid of obama refusing to turn over documents , oh yeah weber what a hell of a choice
commented 2016-05-04 12:23:42 -0400
It’s going to be fun watching Trump fuck America up.
commented 2016-05-04 12:00:39 -0400
JJ there is nothing in the constitution that states we must enable same sex marriage or sick transgender crap that allows perverts to use the washroom of their choice and and all these groups wanting so called equal rights would not of been considered normal 50 or so years ago and it is not normal now ,it is the wacky liberals and minority shrill screaming special interest groups with the permissive left leaning media in canada and the USA pushing and supporting this BS
commented 2016-05-04 11:34:50 -0400
I caught a bit of CNN last night. The usual talking heads were on, telling us how Trump does not have the Hispanic vote, the women’s vote, the immigrant vote, the Black vote, the Native vote, or the welfare vote. He is anti-women, anti-Mexican/immigrant, loud mouthed, ignorant, un-presidential and whatever ad homonym can be tossed out. Yet somehow these panels of experts keep getting it wrong.

From what the panelists say, the people just don’t know how to vote. They keep making the same shallow mistake of voting for Trump! What next? The people shouldn’t have the right to vote unless they vote as the talking heads decide?

Then they were saying all the mud flying is simply giving Hillary ammunition to use when she runs against Trump. Nothing is said about her record and past. There is enough political dirt, news clips, lies, arrogance and so on caught in the public record. There is also the Clinton Foundation. More than sufficient to sink her ship.

They keep insinuating that Trump is a joke. With their predictions, it is they who are the joke.

Oh yes, and now that he is a sure thing, they suddenly suggest that he will now be uncontested. Genius! Sheer genius! They figured that out all on their own.
commented 2016-05-04 10:22:25 -0400
Trump won both Indiana and Calif. by attracting more delegates. These GOP delegates are the rock-ribbed center of the American productive class. These are middle class hinterland people who work or own small business and were concerned enough for the future of classic Americanism to join a party and become a delegate.

These people were persuaded to support Trump by the rioting criminality of the Anti Trump thugs – who they see to be the antithesis of Americana. The rationale being; if Trump worries the chronic unproductive parasite criminal culture, then he must have the guts to do something to eliminate it and return America to the people who make it work.
commented 2016-05-04 10:10:19 -0400
commented 2016-05-04 10:02:11 -0400
Ndp Sucks commented 14 mins ago

Trumps policies are the failed policies of the early thirties that prolonged, and made the great depression the great depression. Japaneses autos to a great degree are made in the US and all companies source at least some parts from around the world. It would be the consumer who should be worried, because will pay the price of tariffs. Trump has repeatedly attacked NAFTA which has nothing to do with China or Japan. Any attacks on that will disrupt and distort north American markets even more leading to higher costs for consumers in this country.
commented 2016-05-04 09:38:01 -0400
Robert Hewgill commented 19 mins ago
Erecting tariffs isn’t much of an economic policy. Which is what Trumps economic policy amounts too.

I have heard it stated more than once that the USA economy is big enough that they could trade with themselves. Many countries such as Japan and China have taken advantage of the US in trade deals and Trump is going to change that and so he should. If you go to a store like Dollarama you will see that the vast majority of the products are made in China and most of this stuff is just junk. Japanese auto makers should be very worried if Trump gets elected. The USA does not need these countries as much as they need the US.
commented 2016-05-04 09:32:04 -0400
Trump represents a complex and concerted effort by the Democrats, and fellow travellers like Trump, to wreck and destroy the Republican Party. The RNC has proved itself to be not only incompetent, but also in league with the Democrats to wreck their own party. It is only the beginning of the Cultural War turning into a shooting war.
commented 2016-05-04 09:22:30 -0400
“…while still supporting gender and sexual equality.” Where is the evidence for that? Trump claims to support the US Constitution. If that is the case, then he supports sincerely held religious beliefs and freedom of association.
commented 2016-05-04 09:11:13 -0400
Will Trudeau’s handlers dare let Junior ever be exposed to the Donald? That would be the most colossal mental mismatch ever,one that would be a total embarrassment to informed Canadians.
commented 2016-05-04 09:08:19 -0400
Erecting tariffs isn’t much of an economic policy. Which is what Trumps economic policy amounts too.
commented 2016-05-04 08:49:39 -0400
Americans seem to be waking up. Canadians are in a rose colored daze………