May 09, 2015

A warning to Patrick Brown

MJ SheppardRebel Blogger

Moments before I began writing this, Barrie MP Patrick Brown won the leadership of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party, which has not held power at Queen’s Park since the fall of 2003. 

I met Brown early this year, listened to him speak and was impressed with what I heard. I was seriously considering joining the party to support him. There can be no doubt that he’s an intelligent guy who breathes politics.

And I believe that he has intractable problems that are going to cause the party to lose their fifth straight election.

First, he doesn’t have a seat in the legislature, and there’s no serious prospect that he’ll have one for at least a year.

Like it or not, the overwhelming majority of the caucus supported Brown’s rival, Christine Elliott. Because of the bloodbath of last year’s provincial election, they all have fairly safe seats. The leader of the Official Opposition does not have the perks of government with which to persuade a member to surrender his or her seat. All he has are the leader’s office and party headquarters, both of which will presumably be staffed with Brown campaign loyalists.

It took former leader John Tory months in 2009 to open up Laurie Scott’s riding for what turned out to be a doomed run. Even if Brown can secure a riding nomination for himself quickly, Premier Wynne has six months to call a by-election. There is every reason to believe that she will wait as long as she can before doing so. As far as media coverage goes, if you’re not at Queen’s Park, you don’t exist.

Second and most important, Brown’s positions on social issues will create the Liberals campaign narrative for them.

After seeing Brown speak in January, I did some googling to find out if he was too good to be true. Within seconds I found out that he had cast votes in Ottawa to reopen the debates on both abortion and same-sex marriage, and he did so against the explicit wishes of Prime Minister Harper.

Brown has refused to say whether he cast those votes because he believed in them, or because he was pandering to the religious right. Neither answer does him any favours with the moderate Ontario electorate.

I’ve been told by several Brown supporters that those votes are irrelevant because, as federal issues, there’s little that a premier can do about them. Wrong. You can cause all manner of mischief through OHIP funding and provincial family law. I’m five-eighths retarded, and I could figure that out. Therefore, so can the Ontario Liberals, who enjoy a well-deserved reputation for being smart, well-financed and incredibly mean.

It matters not at all if Patrick Brown intends to do anything on the abortion and gay marriage files, the Liberals just have to convince enough voters that he will. 

On that, Kathleen Wynne has the powerful precedent of Stephen Harper to rely on. More than anyone else in Canadian history, Harper has mastered the art of pre-writ negative advertising. He’s carpet-bombed three consecutive federal Liberal leaders that way. Will the Ontario PC’s have any credibility at all protesting that after “Not a Leader” and “Just Visiting”? I somehow doubt it.

Regardless of your opinion of her, it’s important to recognize that Wynne is a gifted strategic politician. She should have lost last year to either the Tories or the NDP, but she beat both back in a campaign that I believe will be studied for generations. No one should underestimate her ability to win against tough odds ever again.

In the coming weeks and months, I expect hundreds of thousands of dollars of negative ads painting Patrick Brown as a troglodyte; and without a seat, a platform to defend himself, or money to do it with, Brown will be as helpless as Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff were. If a politician is negatively defined early enough, it’s almost impossible for him or her to rehabilitate them.

It’s an obvious strategy for the Wynne Liberals, and one that I believe will work. 


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commented 2015-05-12 21:43:38 -0400
Glenn Reid, I am as conservative as they come and I also do not share family values like child marriage, female genital mutilation, honour beatings/rape/murders. Nothing at all Conservative about certain “ethnic” values.
commented 2015-05-11 14:46:57 -0400
The various ‘ethnic’ voters are waking up to the fact that the ‘radical left’ as in our Liberal & NDP parties and some in our Progressive conservative party do not share in their traditional family values. Perhaps in stead of catering to the extreme left and allowing them to define our cultural values, it is time for those who do not wish to see the moral collapse of our society (which includes many, many new Canadians as well) to take a stand politically in Ontario.
commented 2015-05-11 10:54:01 -0400
Ho Hum – yes, Brown’s eyes do wander up and down the reporter’s person. But I’m not sure that is any different from how he usually moves his eyes while speaking. That he was facing this reporter at such close range made it look like he was hungrily eyeing the attractive young man’s fit physique but I gleaned no other telltales in his speech, gesture or idiom. Provocative but inconclusive observation.

Of course, some homosexuals remain in true denial until the day they die. And some have been so shamed by upbringing that they self- and other-loathe, going overboard to compensate.

Others may admit they are homosexual but consider it no one else’s business that they believe what their faith teaches, that to act on same-sex attraction is sinful and prohibited. Those individuals may be very self-disciplined and throw themselves into helping others or building an empire.

The other possibility – and I hesitate to mention it – is that he is not married because he has a ferish or paraphilia it is difficult to market except to professionals. Again, nothing wrong with that, consenting adult and all that …

I don’t care why Brown is not married so long as he doesn’t realize the fears of some in the LGBTQ that he will marginalize and exclude LGBTQ Conservative Party members. The PCPO cannot win based on that sort of exclusion.

Discrimination never stops at just one targeted group. If Brown is a hypocrite who does not mean what he says, that he intends to abandon the old-boys elite party leadership style and include all party members in policy making, Ontario will sniff that out and elect an NDP government.

I am willing to give Brown a chance to revitalize the party. Quite frankly, I agree with him about the old-boys mobbed-up executive elite leadership style. It has cost the party dearly and needs to go.

Let’s hope he is smart enough, in any event, to march in Pride. And to invite all those who voted for him to do the same. To be inclusive. To understand you don’t have to agree with everything your opponents believe to support their right to be who they are and make their own lifestyle choices.
commented 2015-05-11 06:17:28 -0400
A very telling interview!

Check out this interview of Patrick Brown on CP24 conducted by a young physically fit male reporter

CLOSELY watch Patrick Brown’s eyes. Instead of staring the reporter directly in the face – Brown’s eyes constantly move up and down as if he is checking out the young male reporters physique and face! Hmmmmm!

The eyes don’t lie!
commented 2015-05-11 03:51:34 -0400

You raise some good points. Maybe Brown and Kenney are asexual as a result of an accident (or even birth defect) although highly unlikely. Almost certainly they are sexual beings so how do they satisfy sexual urges? Brown is a strict social conservative so does that mean that he is also opposed to pre-marital sex? If so does that mean that Brown – at 36 years of age – is a “virgin” just like Kenney?

And of course there is nothing wrong with being gay. That was not the point I was trying to make. What I don’t like is hypocrisy. For example there is little doubt that John Baird is gay (an open secret in Ottawa) but at least he has always championed gay causes. He is not a hypocrite. That is my big issue. I hate hypocrisy in politicians. Considering how many gays are supporters of the conservative party and at the highest level (I suspect at one point in time at least four of Harper’s cabinet ministers were gay – including his two most senior) I think it is very strange for the Ontario PC’s to be adopting an anti-gay stance.

As for being “blessed” to have Kenney I will have to differ with you on that point. As immigration minister Kenney increased immigration from third world countries to record levels. He brought 100,000’s of Muslim “refugees” from places like Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran – no doubt among this number 1,000’s must be radical Islamists intent on killing us! i.e. Canadians are less safe thanks to the treasonous actions of Jason Kenney as Immigration minister.

We can also thank Jason Kenney for the temporary worker programs that have resulted in 10,000’s of Canadians being thrown out of work – only to be replaced with temporary workers from Asia. Again the actions of a TRAITOR – Jason Kenney.
commented 2015-05-11 01:18:49 -0400
Ho Hum – You are funny.

I’m sure lots think what you said but are too polite to say it. Although there is nothing wrong with wondering out loud, in writing. As there is not with being gay, as Seinfeld would say.

It is certainly unusual for a politician, especially a man, to be unmarried. So maybe you are right that Brown is a closeted homosexual. Or he could have suffered childhood trauma. Or be asexual. Or have just been too busy with career to take on family … yet. Which is what I suspect of Kenney. Both men maintain they will marry one day. And I am sure that if they want to, they will. No paucity of women who want to make a good match and are willing to tolerate the idiosynchrices that inevitably come with marrying confirmed bachelors.

But to be sure, it is odd for someone of Kenney’s age to be a virgin. But regardless, he has served the Conservative Party of Canada and Canada herself extremely well. We are blessed to have him.

Brown may be similar in that it may be simple, unusually strong drive that explains his marital status.

Often the best leaders are socially odd.
commented 2015-05-11 00:56:53 -0400
Judy – oops! Just reread your post. Missed that “not” the first time.

I think the scandals and corruption have fatally tarnished Wynne. And although Horwath should be recognized as just as corrupt as Wynne, she is not.
commented 2015-05-11 00:54:19 -0400
Judy – Where did I ever say I think Wynne will win in 2018?

I don’t think Wynne can win again. I think she is finished. But if diverse, progressive Ontario thinks Brown discriminates against demographics protected by the Constitution Act of Canada, they will – wait for it – vote NDP. And that would finish Ontario.
commented 2015-05-10 23:50:41 -0400
I agree with the writer. Picking as their leader someone who is opposed to gay marriage looks like a disastrous decision. Perhaps they believe that by taking an anti-gay stance the PC’s can win over the growing population of Muslim and other immigrant communities that are anti-gay. Who knows – it could be a winning strategy with this segment of the population exploding.

What I find particularly odd is Brown who is 36 years old has never been married. He wants to attack gay marriage and yet he doesn’t have any experience with or interest in traditional marriage. Brown strikes me as someone who could well be a closeted homosexual. Often closet-cases will make anti-gay pronouncements so as to “prove” to the world that they are “straight”. I read that his favorite pastime is playing hockey so we know he likes to hang out a lot in locker-rooms with other naked men.

I feel the same way also about Jason Kenney – who at 47 claims to be a “virgin”. As with Brown – Kenney has taken swipes at the gay community in order to win over the immigrant vote. To me it looks like Brown is taking a page out of Kenney’s play book. If in fact Brown is a closeted homosexual I hope that he will be outed. There is no place for hypocrites in politics.
commented 2015-05-10 23:30:43 -0400
@ Joan you said :"A leader that excludes and discriminates based on differences protected under the Charter cannot win Ontario. " Is that why you think Wynne will not win in the next election?
commented 2015-05-10 22:41:55 -0400
When pundits evaluate politicians and their chances purely on the basis of whether or not they are politically correct (as in the case of this article), we should not complain that politicians no longer demonstrate the integrity and commitment to principle that we used to see in successful leaders.

Why should they? The media who bring them to our attention – or not – don’t care to talk about any of that. It’s so much easier to be shallow and clever.
commented 2015-05-10 22:26:54 -0400
Progressives in Ontario will soon learn just how many social Conservatives are in Ontario including the GTA. It is the Wynne Liberals who have gone so far off the deep end that has caused many a GTA immigrant community to say “Hold on a second. Why am I voting for these people”? Liberals don’t understand that future Ontario policy will not be written by Liberal progressive white women. Look around you, its the Asian, Indian, Arabic etc…. communities that are growing with large families and they are all religious and socially conservative. Wynne, as the sex obsessed morally bankrupt Premier she is, has shown arrogance throughout the entire rollout of this curriculum. She has awoken a sleeping giant. It will be very difficult for Ontario Liberals to shake off their new reputation among GTA immigrants as a bunch of perverts.
That is what is going around through communities. Ben Levin doesn’t help either. I haven’t even touched upon the fiscal time bomb Ontario is in or the backstabbing by greedy pig unions that is evolving. I could go on and on.
commented 2015-05-10 21:22:51 -0400
Don’t know why, but stories like this remind me of doom and gloom climate change predictions.
commented 2015-05-10 17:54:01 -0400
It is always helpful to remember that Bill Clinton and Mike Harris, among others, were both given their chance to run against “powerful, unbeatable, incumbents” because the smart people and the smart money in their respective parties knew that it was “mission impossible” and so they passed.
Why bother running and then wind up getting tagged as a loser? Why indeed?
commented 2015-05-10 17:48:57 -0400
By the time the election comes our debt will be 350 billion. Interest payments will swamp other needed funding, Unions will be pissed at the cuts and privatization Wynne will be forced to do. And this doesnt include the inevitable scandals, billion dollar scandals, to boot.

The PCs need to take this time to prepare for a solution to this coming mess, and prepare the public to swallow the bitter pill.
commented 2015-05-10 16:18:51 -0400
Ontario debt at $0.3 TRILLION, thanks to PIG Wynne and PIG McGuinty.
All Brown has to do is cut taxes and cover lost revenue by saying cut waste (no more billion dollar frauds like PIG Wynne and PIG McGuinty like doing) and voters will shift.

Ontario businesses are in serious trouble and the majors are leaving (Goodyear, Caterpillar, etc) and hydro costs will continue to drive out more major brands (like GM leaving Oshawa for good).

Even the moron voters in Ontario know they need cash to eat, and as our taxes continues to move up, everyday survival for the masses (not unionized goobermint workers) will become a key issue.
commented 2015-05-10 15:19:31 -0400
This article by MJ Sheppard is depressing because he seems to suggest that conservative principles will have to be given up to win against The Liberals. I think we need to get back to those principles as others commenters have already said here. We will already have Lost by giving up the principles of conservatism – how could we ever “win” like that. The principles of family, tradition, religion etc. are worth fighting and losing for. When people see that the conservative party is principled and un-wavering, they will realize that they have quite a bit in common. Unfortunately it will take some time to break the hold of the media party. If Ontario is going down, it should be because of the Liberals and people who vote for them, not the conservatives. Unfortunately we all have to pay, but I don’t see any other way out of this insanity.
commented 2015-05-10 14:30:13 -0400
I am with Doug. Also, I believe you might be surprised how many people want a return to truly conservative values. The Left is is so nasty because deep down they know they are not the majority.
This makes them vicious, willing to do anything to get their way.
commented 2015-05-10 13:46:50 -0400
If you look at why ones like Harris, Clark, Mulroney or last week in Alberta and why they won it was because the electorate wanted change. Patrick Brown has had 9 years to study under the master strategist – the PM. Sure the PM buried Dion and Iggy but they were brought in by the Liberal party insiders. Brown has already stated that he will not wade into controversial issues as he knows this does not win elections. In his victory speech yesterday he signalled that he will go after issues that affect the pocketbook and lives od Ontarioans- rising electricity rates that are going to keep going up in the next 3 years and roads and infrastructure. I predict a PC MPP will leave to run in a federal riding in the fall election. Brown will be in the House by next spring at the latest. He is smart enough to have outfoxed the PC Party. He can certainly outfox Wynne. Why did the PC party not go after the ethnic vote? Harper sent Jason Kenny out and that is how the Conservatives won the 905 region around Toronto. Brown will drag this Ont PC party into the 21st century. My hope is that he also cleans house within the party and sweep out a stagnant party executive and bring in new people with ideas and energy to carry into 2018 and win.
The title of this article should have been -Watch Out Kathleen Wynne – Your Days Are Numbered
commented 2015-05-10 13:24:00 -0400
Balderdash! Wynn has only one way to go, and that is down! By the time the next election rolls around, Ontario will be bankrupt and if Stalin or Atilla the Hun was running against her either would win! All Brown has to do is keep from pulling any gaffes like Tory and Hudak did and come up with a solid election platform.
commented 2015-05-10 12:25:13 -0400
Wynn won her election on the back of Unions who spent millions in 5th column advertising, and a war room for Hudak that was truly inept. It was not that she is a master strategist at all, Moreover, she is now alienating large segments of the population with her sexuality extremism, and you will find that the voters in the rural and ethnic population are looking for someone who shares their values. Sure Brown can blow it if he tries. He can also win if he tries.
commented 2015-05-10 12:09:58 -0400
I agree with Denyse O’Leary. I’m surprised that even though Patrick Brown won to the complete shock and surprise of just about everyone, some are still predicting he will lose because of not being “liberal” enough. I voted for Patrick because Christine is too liberal and to me I want someone who does not cave in to perceived “popular” views. I strongly believe that people are beginning to wake up and understand how secular thinking is damaging humanity on many fronts and the next election will again shock many who have expressed negative views on the future outcome.
commented 2015-05-10 09:24:15 -0400
I voted for Christine Elliott because, although I liked Patrick Brown, it looked to me like Christine could win where Patrick could not. By the time the next election rolls around I will most likely have moved west so it won’t be as important for me but I have great sympathy for my fellow Ontarians who may well have to live under KW for the next 7 years. Another opportunity blown. I hope I am wrong.
commented 2015-05-10 01:39:03 -0400
Mr. Sheppard, you are describing a people that no longer merits freedom. If one cannot safely advocate that children should not be dismembered (alive, incidentally) in abortions, we are not that people. It’s not the politicians. It is the people we have become, the people that they must “pander” to. After Kim Wynne, we will learn who our next new masters are.
commented 2015-05-09 18:31:28 -0400
Good piece.i agree although I don’t think Wynne will win again in 2018. I think it may be worse. I think Horwath could win.

Brown will alienate not just left-wing Ontario but the wealthy and growing LGBTQ Conservative Party members with his interest in attacking their rights under law.

A leader that excludes and discriminates based on differences protected under the Charter cannot win Ontario.