March 31, 2016

Dr. Tim Ball: Climate scientists on “cherry picking” global warming data

Tim BallRebel Columnist

A revealing comment about the corruption of climate science occurred before a Joint Congressional Inquiry. They were seeking to determine the claims by Canadians Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick about the scientific inaccuracy of Michael Mann’s “hockey stick.”

That famous graph (Figure 1) appeared in the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report and became the poster child for the proof of human-caused global warming.

Figure 1 shows the graph Mann produced that rewrote climate history by eliminating a warmer-than-today period between 900 and 1300 AD called the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). They established an Ad Hoc committee under the chair of Edward Wegman to determine who was correct.



(Figure 1)

When questioned by the Congressional Committee, one researcher, Rosanne D’Arrigo, made a comment that reflected naiveté and duplicity. When asked why data was narrowly and selectively chosen D’Arrigo replied: “That you had to pick cherries if you want to make cherry pie.”

Cherry picking involves picking the start and end point of a section of the temperature record to argue for warming or cooling with evidence. In teaching students about the dangers, I drew the “UP” portion of Figure 2 on the blackboard, then added two lines for a “DOWN” claim, and finally two more lines for a “UP” trend.
 


(Figure 2)

One of the first examples that confirmed my suspicions about what was going on with the corruption of global warming research by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is shown in Figure 3. The top graph was presented in Chapter 8 of the 1995 IPCC Report to support the claim that,

“The body of statistical evidence in chapter 8, when examined in the context of our physical understanding of the climate system, now points to a discernible human influence on the global climate.”

Benjamin Santer lead author of the Chapter personally inserted the sentence to replace one that already agreed to by the other chapter authors.

“While some of the pattern-base discussed here have claimed detection of a significant climate change, no study to date has positively attributed all or part of climate change observed to man-made causes.”

The bottom graph shows the longer record, which supports that conclusion. Dennis Avery and Fred Singer noted in 2006,

“Santer single-handedly reversed the ‘climate science’ of the whole IPCC report and with it the global warming political process! The ‘discernible human influence’ supposedly revealed by the IPCC has been cited thousands of times since in media around the world, and has been the ‘stopper’ in millions of debates among nonscientists.”



(Figure 3)

Recently, reports of the warmest years in the record circulate to amplify the false stories about human-caused global warming. For example, The Guardian newspaper headline for 24 March 2014 says,

13 of 14 warmest years on record occurred in 21st century – UN

Of course they have! The global temperature rose from 1680, the coldest period of the Little Ice Age (LIA) to 1998. Since then temperatures levelled and declined slightly, in what is known as the hiatus. Figure 4 illustrates the situation for the period of the instrumental record starting in 1880. It is not surprising that the highest temperatures occur in the most recent portion, even though they have levelled off.



(Figure 4)

Figure 5 shows the same graph as Figure 4, but now the temperature is extended back to the nadir of the LIA. The trend from 1680 was problematic for the IPCC because it showed the current warming was part of a longer natural trend.


(Figure 5)

We know the objective of the hockey stick to rewriting climate history was deliberate.

During testimony before the Senate Committee on Environment & Public Works Hearing on Climate Change and the Media in 2006, University of Oklahoma geophysicist Dr. David Deming recalled “an astonishing email from a major researcher in the area of climate change” who told him that "we have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period."

The ‘hockey stick,’ or as some prefer the ‘hokey stick,’ achieved the goal. It replaced a graph that appeared in the 1990 Report (Figure 6) showing the longer trend warming.



(Figure 6)

It also showed the MWP was warmer than the current temperatures, something that is still true, despite the claims of the “warmest years on record”. All this confirms Disraeli’s observation about “Lies, damned lies, and statistics.” It is especially applicable to the deception about global warming.

 

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commented 2016-04-01 10:41:49 -0400
NEO BIOGNOSIS commented 7 hours ago
The dishonesty Ball has here is astounding. How many people here understand the significance of the upper atmosphere temperature graphs. Most people live at the surface of the planet.
-————-
OK, so let’s look at the surface temperature data. I downloaded all of Environment Canada’s daily station data for the entire country back to the beginning. Only 12 stations go back to 1900 or before. Station 4333, Ottawa, is one of those stations with a complete record to 1900. So what is the temperature doing?

Summer TMax is falling: https://cdnsurfacetemps.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/4333tmax.jpg

The number of hot days above 30C is falling: https://cdnsurfacetemps.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/4333hotdays.jpg

Record breaking summer days is dominated by years prior to 1950: https://cdnsurfacetemps.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/4333recordhighjuly.jpg

However, winter TMin is rising: https://cdnsurfacetemps.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/4333tmin.jpg

That warming of the winter is faster than the cooling of the summer giving an over all increase in the average temperature.

So what is happening here is in the period 1900-1920 we had short but very hot summers, with long deep cold winters. Today we have longer cooler summers with shorter less cold winters and a longer growing season (by 30 days).

I have confirmed from other stations that this is happening across the country, and all of North America.

So explain how this change in the temperature swings is caused by our emissions of CO2 and explain how this trend will be catastrophic.
commented 2016-04-01 09:05:39 -0400
JAY KELLY yes what is it now CLIMATE CHANGE or has it changed again ??
commented 2016-04-01 04:51:01 -0400
Nice spin “Neo Biognosis”,,, By the way, why not have the courage to use your real name?… The mass of the earth’s atmosphere is concentrated in the five miles above our heads… People need oxygen masks just to climb Mt. Everest… At a 150 miles it’s just stray ions bouncing back radio waves… In the long term, the surface layer is where all the action is going to happen, and has, for better or worse… “GHG”?… The Bible says “the sun also rises”.but that gives a false impression of long term reality because the sun “rises” a bit differently every day and every hour… Dr. Tim Ball is very much on the mark by noting this solar influence rather than blaming cattle farting in rural Canada or coolies building unoccupied highrises in China…
commented 2016-04-01 04:02:11 -0400
The dishonesty Ball has here is astounding. How many people here understand the significance of the upper atmosphere temperature graphs. Most people live at the surface of the planet. The temperature in the stratosphere has been seen to be falling, because warming is caused by GHG and not the sun as Ball tries to infer, the heat is not getting out to the stratosphere, causing it it cool. If the sun was warming the atmosphere, you would expect the stratosphere to also warm. The opposite is true, Ball is barking totally up the wrong tree!
commented 2016-04-01 00:37:15 -0400
I very much appreciate Dr. Tim Ball’s mention of the factors such as the Earth’s tilt, elliptical orbit around the sun and solar radiation fluctuation… I guess we need more CME events (coronal mass ejections) such as those that put Quebec in the dark in 1989, to remind us where the “real power”, hence “climate change” comes from… As has been observed many times by rational scientists, even a 1/10 of 1 per cent fluctuation of the Sun’s radiation in a given year, let alone the 11 or 22 year solar cycles – more than accounts for “climate change”… The greatest hoax in modern history is the climate change game being played to redistribute the world’s wealth “by those who know better what is best for us”…
commented 2016-04-01 00:11:45 -0400
Climate change alarmism and linking (mostly western) human activity to climate change is a political agenda masquerading as science.

Science records the most drastic climate changes that effected human and natural development were natural, extraterrestrial or before the industrial revolution, what these climate hysteria geeks are anguishing over is the micro fluctuations called weather

The geological and glacial records show that ice ages have predominated Eartths history as the most catastrophic climate events. These typically develop slowly, whereas they end more abruptly. Glacials and interglacials within an ice age display this same trend.

On shorter time scales, global temperatures fluctuate often and rapidly. Various records reveal numerous large, widespread, abrupt climate changes over the past 100,000 years. One of the more recent intriguing findings is the remarkable speed of these changes. Within the incredibly short time span (by geologic standards) of only a few decades or even a few years, global temperatures have fluctuated by as much as 15°F (8°C) or more.

For example, as Earth was emerging out of the last glacial cycle, the warming trend was interrupted 12,800 years ago when temperatures dropped dramatically in only several decades. A mere 1,300 years later, temperatures locally spiked as much as 20°F (11°C) within just several years. Sudden changes like this occurred at least 24 times during the past 100,000 years. In a relative sense, we are in a time of unusually stable temperatures today—how long will it last?

Glacials and interglacials occur in fairly regular repeated cycles. The timing is governed to a large degree by predictable cyclic changes in Earth’s orbit, which affect the amount of sunlight reaching different parts of Earth’s surface. The three orbital variations are: (1) changes in Earth’s orbit around the Sun (eccentricity), (2) shifts in the tilt of Earth’s axis (obliquity), and (3) the wobbling motion of Earth’s axis (precession).
commented 2016-03-31 22:30:49 -0400
Thank you Dr Tim Ball. You are indeed fighting the good fight. I am sure you are paying a personal price to fight the climate change promoters as they like to attack individuals with a gang mentality. I always enjoyed your live interviews with Ezra and hope to see and hear you possibly on the main show.
commented 2016-03-31 21:16:45 -0400
Lad Reme said, “We are going to pay taxes on it weather we like it or not.”

Is that an intended pun? :)

Think about it, we’re being taxed on the weather.
- on a theory about a ‘stab in the dark’ guess of what it might do in the future
- even though they acknowledge they could be totally wrong, as proven by models and the fraud
- and the tax will do nothing, if even at a tiny, minuscule, microscopic, statistically inconsequential percentage point fraction.

It’s bat-shit insanity from all angles.
This is what ideology does, it suspends logic, favoring a biased, malignantly-programmed mindset.

@climatefallacy
commented 2016-03-31 20:12:22 -0400
Daryl Herman, what are you on about? The article had to do with global warming.
commented 2016-03-31 19:55:08 -0400
It is time for Canada to pull out of the UN, unfortunately as long as we have Justin Trudeau at the helm, this will be an impossibility.

The figures given by the UN re climate change, have been proven false so many times, that it is becoming boring. Anybody with some common sense, knows they are false.

Regardless of the facts, the UN has declared that the book on global warming is closed, they refuse to discus it any more. We are going to pay taxes on it weather we like it or not.

As long as we have Trudeau in power, nothing will improve.
commented 2016-03-31 19:29:38 -0400
Tim Ball and Patrick Moore, will you stop telling the truth! ;-[]
You’re breaking the narrative that the irrational leftwing want to propagandize. :)))

The truth is so refreshing!
Keep up the fight for truth guys.
I look forward to the day these ‘hokey’ stick fabricators are prosecuted and incarcerated.
Their day of reckoning will come.

@climatefallacy
commented 2016-03-31 17:38:22 -0400
Jay Kelly commented 1 hour ago
WTF!? – are illiterate & deaf?! Do you really think you are fielding a “new” question or are you drinking too much Libtard Kool-Aid? That slop makes one stupid & mental deficient! Go look in the mirror.

@dave Grohn – that is so very precise on what is happening – but guys like Jay – still can’t figure it out!
commented 2016-03-31 16:29:37 -0400
this global warming hoax was never about the climate it was all about totalitarian control over the human population by left wing fascist extremism. they want to micro manage our personal lives with an iron fist from birth to death because they think they own us. why do you think all the millennials are wearing communist logos and joining a bunch of earth worshiping feminist cults?….they are brainwashed with a bunch of superficial hedonistic narcissistic garbage just like George Orwell 1984. this was all started by Luciferian Gnosticism and new age transcendental Rosicrucianism. this is the kind of anti Christ filth that resurrects demons and we are seeing these demons come out of people every day, ie"radical feminists, anti Trump protesters, radical environmentalists, ect".
commented 2016-03-31 16:11:49 -0400
I do not know if Tim Ball intended it, but he fails to distinguish clearly between two basic questions: “Is there a trend toward increasing global temperatures?” and, “Is there evidence that an upward trend in global temperatures is due to human activities?”