October 08, 2015

Conservatives need to worry in Ontario

Brian LilleyArchive

Is it time for the Conservatives to start panicking over polls showing a rising Liberal Party? Damn right it is.

Let’s be honest here and say that the polls are erratic.

Ekos released new numbers this week showing a decent Conservative lead nationally (35.1% CPC, 30.9% LPC, 22.2% NDP). That contradicts Ipsos which released a poll Monday showing the Conservatives with a narrow lead (33% CPC, 32% LPC, 26% NDP).

Meanwhile, Mainstreet says the Conservatives are far in the lead (37% CPC, 29% LPC, 24% NDP).

That should be fine, no need to panic, right? Wrong.

Nanos has had the Liberals on top for a week just about and that trend continues (33.5% LPC, 31.6% CPC, 24.2% NDP) and now Forum claims a four point lead for the Liberals (35% LPC, 31% CPC, 26% NDP).

With varied results like that a sensible person might just throw their hands up in the air or repeat the oft cited quip that polls are for dogs.

Here is the thing, despite these varied national numbers the polls show one trend that has to be worrying for the Conservatives and that is the rise of the Liberals in Ontario.

Nanos has been showing a steady rise for the Liberals in the most populous province in the country and the home of a little more than one-third of the seats in Parliament. Having travelled Eastern Ontario, the Toronto area and the suburbs surrounding it, the Nanos numbers on the Liberal rise made little sense to me.

Then the Ipsos numbers came out showing a collapse of the NDP vote in the 905 regions surrounding Toronto. It’s not that Conservatives were sinking said Ipsos, it’s that the NDP vote was evaporating, running back to Trudeau and the Liberals.

New Democrats have been telling me for some time that Ontario has been a tough nut for them to crack, even as fortunes have turned elsewhere, the ghost of Bob Rae’s provincial NDP government has been haunting NDP candidates at the door.

The crack Mulcair made about Bob Rae during the Munk Debate, it wasn’t an accident.

If NDP, or generally left leaning voters are moving to the Liberals in large numbers in Ontario this has to worry the Conservatives.

I still maintain that there is no real national trend this election – the Atlantic provinces, Quebec, Ontario, Prairies and BC are five distinct campaigns and even within them there are different areas, different trends.

But with 121 seats Ontario matters greatly.

In 2011 the Conservatives took 73 of 106 seats in Ontario, this time out the Liberals hope to take 70 of what is now 121 seats in Ontario. To get there the Liberals are using the machine and the blueprint laid out by Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne.

If the Liberals come close to 70 seats in Ontario then they come close to forming government. With strength in Atlantic Canada, a return of some – though not that many – seats in Quebec and even pick-ups in Manitoba, Alberta and BC, the Liberals start to move from dead to a path to victory.

The NDP have to be scared of this as well.

If the numbers in Ontario continue on this path then long held NDP seats in places like Hamilton and more recent additions like Welland are in trouble, so is Tom Mulcair’s time as opposition leader.

Too many people, even in the media party commentariat, see the NDP and Liberals as being on the same team – progressive, anti-Harper. That is a mistake.

The NDP and Liberals hate each other, especially now.

To the NDP a Liberal win is as bad as a Conservative win, possibly worse because it would certainly mean their return to third place status.

What is that old NDP slogan? Liberal, Tory, same old story.

In fact, Mulcair is now starting the claim the other two leaders are essentially the same, hoping to bring back voters that have moved to Trudeau.

Expect a major play in these last two weeks from the NDP as well as the Conservatives all aimed at taking down Trudeau.

In addition to tying Trudeau to Harper, Mulcair will claim not only is Trudeau not ready but that he won’t stand up for Canadian jobs and fight against the Trans Pacific Partnership deal.

Fighting the just announced trade deal will be a focus for Mulcair until October 19.

Stephen Harper will spend his time touting his economic record and promoting the benefits of the TPP, the opportunities for Canadian business. But as Harper talks trade and economics look for others to play wedge politics. Of course the media will mostly ask him about niqab, but he is talking the economy.

Why wedge Trudeau? Because Trudeau is weak on terrorism, he doesn’t support fighting ISIS, he backs the wearing of face veils during citizenship ceremonies, he opposes stripping dual nationals convicted of terrorist offences of their Canadian citizenship.

While those issues don’t resonate with the media party in Ottawa or those on the campaign trail, they do resonate with Canadians of all parties. Look at our poll on citizenship revocation – 84% across the country support it.

This election is not over, not by a long shot -- but the trend of the Liberal rise in Ontario dictates what must happen in the closing days.

By the way, last election I said live on Sun News, during our election night coverage, that the Conservatives would win 165 seats. They took 166.

I’ll update my call during The Rebel’s election coverage on October 19.



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commented 2015-10-14 19:28:28 -0400
Wayne. Do you have a link?
commented 2015-10-14 14:31:46 -0400
Has anybody else seen the new Tom Mulcair NDP ad where they spit on the Canadian flag? That is really disgusting. I saw it on a youtube channel last night.
commented 2015-10-14 14:00:42 -0400
toronto being the centre of the universe will dictate to the ROC.. that is as it should be..
commented 2015-10-14 13:02:55 -0400
Conservatives may hang on by their fingernails this election but the future looks bleak with about two thirds of voters already choosing big government, big spending progressives/socialists. School and teacher union indoctrination, left-wing mainstream media bias, an entitlement culture and a burdensome bureaucracy is now in place and will take decades to reverse. What is more, and as things get worse, folks will be crying for more and more government to solve problems.
commented 2015-10-14 12:27:35 -0400
Further, many, accept the idea that government can create an economy by infrastructure spending. Although it is an outrageous falsification, Harper cannot defeat the concept, as the media and big unions and big government sector workers, ensure that the idea is not debated at all. With Trudeau, Wynn, Notley all in power, this is going to get very bad.
commented 2015-10-14 11:24:25 -0400
After talking with many people, in different parts of the country, I believe most will vote based on what they believe to be true, and most of that is disinformation. The MSM is the biggest manipulator and falsifier of information, which makes it the biggest opponent of the conservatives. There has also been an acceptance of the belief that change is good, change is needed, and the consequences are never examined nor appreciated. Hence, I expect Harper to lose.
commented 2015-10-13 21:18:12 -0400
Harper only polls poorly in the deranged media – they will be 10-18 points low on their predicted CPC numbers when CPC support mobilizes to the polls.
commented 2015-10-13 18:13:11 -0400
Overall support doesn’t matter – it is where the support lies. The Liberals always used to win if they could cobble together Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes. I don’t think Trudeau is there yet. Quebec will be split NDP, Bloc. Also, don’t forget, Ed Miliband was writing out his acceptance speech for the UK PM’s job based on the polls only to discover it was a Labour wipe out not victory when the votes were finalized. The only poll that matters is on election day.
commented 2015-10-12 11:41:22 -0400
Nah, it just means conservatives are determined to make sure Harper stays where he is, understand how important it is and are making sure they get their vote in. Last election I was between moves from one district to another, and knew I’d be travelling on election day, so I made pretty darn sure I got to the advance poll.
I’d hazard a guess more than half the people attending advance polls are voting Conservative.
commented 2015-10-12 10:52:44 -0400
My family and I voted at the advance polls yesterday in Mississauga. Had to wait in line for a while with a lot of new Canadians and the guy working the event said turnout for advance voting has been very high. I get worried because to me it says a lot of people who will not be available to vote on election day are getting out early which means they’re motivated to want change. I’m getting a sinking feeling that Ontario is going to go the same way it did provincially a few months ago. Ugh….
commented 2015-10-10 08:37:34 -0400
Andy Neimers – “smoke and mirrors” describes narcissistic behaviour to a tee!
commented 2015-10-10 03:47:10 -0400
Jimmy Da Silva’s “facts” remind me of the old Mandrake The Magician comic strip when I was a kid… In it, Mandrake, and his trusty sidekick Lothar, when confronted with a scenario they didn’t like, would invoke the magic phrase:- “Mandrake Gestures Hypnotically!” and all would be solved through illusion, smoke and mirrors… Well not this time Jimmy, no “Mandrake” escape for you… You made the stupid, stupid claim that Canada under Harper has the worst economic record of any PM in 80 years… So that takes us back to 1935, the depths of the Great Recession!… Bill Collins has pointed out that Canada right now has the best GDP/debt ratio of any of the G7 nations, which is noted by the International Monetary Fund and Moody’s in their annual reports… You Jimmy, are so “full of it” I bet your eyes are “brown”…
commented 2015-10-09 16:24:01 -0400

I already did – those are the facts. Now prove them wrong.
commented 2015-10-09 15:44:25 -0400
Jimmy, Canada has the best GDP to debt ratio of the G7 nations (formerly the G8 until our Prime Minister led the charge to kick Russia out). If he hadn’t had to deal with a minority government early in his tenure and appease the opposition parties who howled to bail out every Tom, Dick, and Harry who asked for it, we would be in a lot stronger position now.
commented 2015-10-09 15:01:26 -0400
In the end Toronto rules Ontario – it will likely vote for marijuana – and the libs will win – not what I want however this country needs to get a good kick in the ass and an anything but Conservatives government will provide it.
commented 2015-10-09 14:34:39 -0400
I don’t give a sweet care whether Obama is a criminal or not , it is was most talk radio in the US are saying. After all it their country and their opinion. There was talk of impeachment but they backed down because he is black and it was thought it would burn the country down because he was the first black president and it would look like all blacks were all abject failures. Do some research if you want to debate is all that anyone asks instead of depending on emotion only
commented 2015-10-09 14:07:35 -0400
Sorry Jimmy, you don’t get to throw your lies back into my face.

You need to prove “Harper has the worst economic growth record of any PM in 80 years.” You made the claim, you prove you are right.

Go ahead Jimmy, take your own advise.

Prove it.
commented 2015-10-09 12:57:27 -0400
The US President is a criminal. LOL.

You can’t make this shit up.

What you are really saying is that isn’t doing what YOU want him to do.
commented 2015-10-09 12:56:06 -0400

It’s not enough to just blather like a raving lunatic that I am lying. PROVE ME WRONG. Do you know how to use Google to find facts and figures?
commented 2015-10-09 12:50:22 -0400
Many of the ridings in Ontario are going to be very close between Conservatives and Liberals and a lot hinges on the 905 and which way they go. Clearly Harps is going to blow the doors off in western Canada and Trudeau has the east coast. My bet is the Liberals take the popular vote to do the competitive nature of the Ontario ridings but the conservatives win the most seats. I predict a conservative minority which dooms Harper as leader. Anyone want to put bets on it?
commented 2015-10-09 12:50:20 -0400
The US president is a criminal, at least from where I sit. I can’t believe that nobody has taken a shot at him. He must be the most protected fraud, in the history of the US presidency.
commented 2015-10-09 11:30:23 -0400
Have you noticed Peter, that Harper has been able to keep the divisiveness between provinces especially Quebec at a very even keel ? I found that a very admirable quality in a leader in this country that has had a history in this sort of thing. It seem that every time that there is a liberal government in charge separation always rears up either in Quebec or out west.

I can’t understand the more progressive the party is the more trouble that it causes for its citizens. Obama was raised earlier and where he has taken that great country is borderline criminal for a president. On talk radio all that is mentioned is the gun issue and civil war . That man has single handedly ripped that country into factions, one pitted against the other. The same can be said about our country if progressives take power. They will drive a wedge between its people only this time I feel it will not work out so well. Trudeau will break this nation up starting with Quebec and ending in the west. And btw if the US does implode it will definitely spill over the border. Conservatives/libertarians will have no choice but to fight or flee
commented 2015-10-09 11:16:52 -0400
Deborah, I was slow on that mark,tried and failed, but I am done, done.
If this weren’t such a serious issue, I’d say let them put one of those other lunatics in, see what bad economic growth really looks like, and all the misery and turmoil that they will bring to Canadians.
commented 2015-10-09 11:12:06 -0400
Peter Netterville – Jimmy is an antagonist, and I scroll by that lunatic, to keep my own sanity. You can only argue with stupid for so long, and then you need to press that ignore button. Ignoring a narcissist will drive him mad, because he thinks the world is waiting, with baited breath, for his next words. I don’t even read what he has to say, so ignorance can truly be bliss. I think he and a few others need to put a sock in it and give it rest already!
commented 2015-10-09 11:02:34 -0400
Jimmy claims, “Harper has the worst economic growth record of any PM in 80 years.”

Another pure bread lie.

Jimmy, you are a LIAR!

Take your lies and forcibly and with meaning insert them where the “sun don’t shine!”
commented 2015-10-09 11:00:52 -0400
Jimmy said, "Only two women have ever refused to take off their niqab for the citizenship ceremony. Two. That’s it. "

It does not matter if it was one or a hundred billion, it is the precedent that is set that is the issue.
commented 2015-10-09 10:59:09 -0400
Jimmy said, “We are the only G7 country in a recession.”

We are not in a recession, Jimmy. You are believing the liars in the main stream media. Canada’s economy is growing. So take your lies and go away. Damn I hate liars!!!
commented 2015-10-09 10:57:31 -0400
Kenneth said, “So the downtown Toronto liberal elite that usually votes Liberal are ditching the NDP and going back to the Liberals …”

Yes, and if that does not signify the intentions of the liberal elites as nothing more than wanting power, then I don’t know what would.
commented 2015-10-09 03:45:11 -0400
If you want something REALLY SCARY to think about, how about Justin as PM going FACE TO FACE with Putin? Goodbye Canadian claims on the Arctic; also eventually, goodbye NATO; thus goodbye Eastern Europe; goodbye our Judeo-Christian heritage; and goodbye private gun ownership… But hello Sharia law; hello Putin’s “Soviet Union” again ascendant… We would certainly be able to keep our pot plants, just as the Soviets kept dirt cheap rotgut vodka available to dull the masses… Would you even want to have kids, to grow up in such a perversion of traditional Canadian values?… The Americans are now in evident political revolt over their worst president in history… They will not take kindly to another “Commie hugging/PET” government on their northern border, come Inaugural Day, January, 2017…
commented 2015-10-09 02:24:14 -0400

@jimmy-dope-silva is a communist piece of shit. Ignore @jimmy-dope-silva – he’s an irritating turd who hopes for economic suicide along with the likes of PIG TROODO and PIG MULCAIR.

Again, ignore this nazi-pig @jimmy-dope-silva. ROT IN HELL @jimmy-DOPE-SILVA!!!!