I just had a fascinating conversation with one of my favourite writers: David P. Goldman, author of How Civilizations Die.
I was surprised when Goldman told me that Iran's birthrate has been plummeting (and that its STD rates are staggeringly high.)
"Persia is soon to be an ex-nation," he says.
Iran is in a demographic decline, but, he adds, getting rid of Iran's theocratic regime might help the country turn itself around in time.
Otherwise, in 30 years, the country will "collapse because a third of their people will be over the age of 60."
Goldman says: When Iran does "things that look nuts to us, remember: they're staring into an abyss" and "facing an existential crisis."
He points out that Iran's birthrate is as low as Nazi Germany's, and that that's no coincidence.
Both countries were and are explicitly anti-Semitic and supremacist, and panic-stricken about their future and place in the world power structure.
In Iran's case, the existence of a flourishing Israel makes a mockery of their sense of Muslim superiority, and they can't cope with the shame of this cognitive dissonance.
Yet Iran's Muslim identity has no genuine foundation, says Goldman, who quips that after Iran's theocracy collapses, "We'll find out that there were no more Muslims in Iran than their were communists in Russia in 1989."
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