The International Monetary Fund is at it again, predicting the sky will fall and Britain’s economy will incur “substantial costs” in the event of a No Deal Brexit. The IMF has said that all Brexit scenarios – even soft Brexit that essentially changes nothing – would “entail costs.” They believe, however, that a No Deal Brexit would be a “significantly worse outcome.”
The IMF believes Britain’s economy will grow by 1.5 per cent in 2018 and 2019 if a “broad” Brexit agreement is made. But, in the event of a No Deal exit, the IMF’s Managing Director Christine Lagarde says we’ll experience an increased deficit, depreciation of our currency, and reduced growth – all meaning the UK economy would contract.
Let’s assume it’s true…would you take it? I’ve spoken to a lot of people about this recently, and the consensus among Brexiteers appears to be that they’re willing to accept a short-term hit to the economy for the sake of the country. I’d agree with them. So what if there’s a short-term hit? We know that in the long run we’ll be fine – in fact, we’ll thrive, and we’ll be free of European dictators.
Freedom isn’t free, and the world isn’t perfect. Scaremongering in the press changes nothing. We are still being ruled by dictators and bureaucrats, and as a lady told me outside Westminster the other day, I’ll accept a few less pounds in the short term if it means being free of these monsters.
Here’s the thing, though: the IMF has been wrong before. In fact, they’ve been wrong a lot. In their 2016 report, the IMF told us that Brexit would trigger a recession, hit living standards in Britain, cause inflation and reduce the GDP by up to 5.5 per cent. They even claimed it would cause a stock market and house price crash.
So why should we believe them this time?