August 28, 2017

Is there a Trudeau slayer/Scheer kingmaker among NDP leadership contenders?

Christopher WilsonRebel Commentator

If you’ve seen Sheila Gunn Reid’s report on NDP leadership candidate Niki Ashton drawing praise from far-left, antisemitic activists, you may have started paying attention to that race but there’s another reason Conservatives should pay attention. 

As an election nerd, I spend countless hours estimating and calculating how Trudeau’s majority could fall in 2019 and I’m here to tell you why you should care about who wins that contest.

The key for Scheer and the Conservatives is as much their own performance as it is the NDP’s.

Is there a Justin Trudeau slayer and Scheer kingmaker in the NDP leadership race?

Watch as I elaborate further on this and use historical election results to show how Conservative electoral fortunes are tied directly to the performance of the NDP.

Comments
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commented 2017-08-30 10:28:23 -0400
Trump’s rejection of Paris was silly, entirely partisan posturing. The simple fact is that the US is very likely going to reach its Paris commitments anyway due to natural economic trends (natural gas and renewables displacing coal fired electricity primarily), despite the President. Just because Trump is an idiot doesn’t mean we need to follow him.

Scheer’s platform included carbon emission controls. He opposed taxes as a mechanism to do so, not the underlying concept of reducing emissions. He also knows that the only way he can win is by poaching Liberal supporters, which necessitates taking a centrist position on issues. Most Canadians do believe climate change is an issue that needs to be addressed.

I wonder how much money Levant made on those “domination” ads Leitch took out?
commented 2017-08-30 09:14:49 -0400
Add to comment below – childish snub.
commented 2017-08-30 08:17:40 -0400
Sarah Stallone, the support I think you are referring to is when Scheer was first elected, (many Rebels didn’t rank him first, or second etc…) there was disappointment expressed, but, as the new leader of CPC many, including me, set aside the disappointment. Stand behind the newly elected leader, and unite.
Then, in short order; came the whipped vote for the Paris Accord. I strongly would have preferred that Scheer called the PM out on his snub to our closest neighbour and ally; and, instructed MP’s to abstain from the vote. Refuse to play along with Trudeau’s virtue signalling in Parliament.
I have paid attention to what he has said over the summer, and, will reserve further judgement until the House is in session again.

Ezra repeatedly refused to endorse a particular candidate running in the leadership race; including Scheer.
commented 2017-08-30 01:52:04 -0400
Drew Wakariuk,

As I clearly stated – this was before the Paris accord. The Rebel and many people supported Scheer before the bait and switch.
commented 2017-08-30 01:26:33 -0400
Sarah Stallone the Rebel was all over him for going with the Paris accord and will criticize him when he does more left wing garbage, unlike the left we are not mindless drones.
commented 2017-08-29 21:31:18 -0400
Andrew, I appreciate your explanation of a standard ranked ballot scheme; I’m not sure if they used that system. I remember going all over the Net and to various Conservative sights to find any info on this. You would think that they would send your type of explanation with the ballots.
The final straw for me was when I ran into President of my area’s riding and I knew more than him.
It was badly organized, especially when you bring up the 7000 votes that were somehow lost.
commented 2017-08-29 18:12:25 -0400
“Andrew Stephenson—you have no idea how the last Conservative Leadership ballots even looked like as I’m sure you vote for Elizabeth May or something else that is illogical. The format wasn’t hard; the problem was that there were no instructions explaining how the results were calculated. For example did 50 number 2 spots beat 30 number 1 spots? Did the number 3’s and 4’s help anyone or everyone?
Sarah Stallone—I never remember any Rebel Commenter admit to voting for Scheer.
"

My political affiliations are irrelevant – I know how they did it. It was a standard ranked ballot scheme, a series of instant runoffs.

Your ballot went 100% to your top choice that was still in the race. In the first round, they counted everybody’s first choice. IF nobody got 50% of the votes, they discard the person with the fewest. Ballots then had that name struck off, and were reallocated to the next person down each ballot’s list. ie, if you ranked 1-2-3-4, Leitch, Trost, Obrai, and Bernier in that order, your ballot would stay with Leitch (100%) for the first six ballots, then when she was booted, it would go to Trost until he was booted. Then it would skip over Obrai (already eliminated) and end up with Bernier, who was there til the end.

Then they did it again. Thirteen times, until someone got 50%+1 of the remaining ballots in their name. If all your choices were eliminated, your ballot was discarded.

Second choices are not weighted differently. If your first choice is still in the race, your ballot is 100% with your first choice. If your first choice was eliminated, your second choice now gets 100% of your ballot. Until your first choice is eliminated, they don’t even look down-ballot.
commented 2017-08-29 14:46:43 -0400
@ s stallone, what happened is, his true
libtard colors showed through. All any
want now is our money and lives. They
are all lazy welfare bums. It’s time
we took our country back, I’ve lost
family members that went ant fought
for Canadians freedom and now
we’ve a gov. that looks after the enemy
and forces us to pay for it.
As a young boy I had to help look
after vets, clean homes, bath, shave
whatever as they gave us freedom. But
I remember being told by more than
one, that, had they known the truth
they would have helped the jews ,
but they would have helped h7tler
walk through Europe and killed all
inbreeds and drug dealers. Now I
see our politicians dealing dope on
the young, so they can get control
and turn Canada communist. Think
about “this”. President Trump is our
bulwark against this, that’s why so
many want him removed. I truly hope
that NK starts something, then Trump
will take control of these spineless
scum.
Now as much as the loss of life will
be horrific, it’s still better than allowing NK
to blow everything to hell. One request
kim Nail that commie from Canada, then we
won’t have to put up with all the BS, that
comes across those lips.
commented 2017-08-29 14:24:12 -0400
Ron Joseph,

The Rebel was all over Scheer with numerous videos supporting the guy, but I was referring to Rebel readers in the comment sections and there was a ton of support for Scheer and happy comments when he won…then the fall out happened.
commented 2017-08-29 14:12:07 -0400
LIza Rosie—Yes, Quebec is 25% of the population, therefore 1of every 4 votes. These votes may be ripe for the picking as Quebecers are upset with the Liberal’s open borders.
Trudeau’s Refugees are too new to vote; I don’t remember a swearing in party to make them citizens. If Trump keeps winning their war for them, many will go back and help rebuild Syria. I will help crowd-fund their trip.

Andrew Stephenson—you have no idea how the last Conservative Leadership ballots even looked like as I’m sure you vote for Elizabeth May or something else that is illogical. The format wasn’t hard; the problem was that there were no instructions explaining how the results were calculated. For example did 50 number 2 spots beat 30 number 1 spots? Did the number 3’s and 4’s help anyone or everyone?
Sarah Stallone—I never remember any Rebel Commenter admit to voting for Scheer.
commented 2017-08-29 13:33:02 -0400
Just let NK do it. They want

to test their missiles and snowflake
likes to think he’s a man. Well I’m
sure lil kim would love to do it;
commented 2017-08-29 12:13:19 -0400
“Liza Rosie commented 2 hours ago
“Scheer is who Canadian conservatives voted for.”
That’s debatable. I’m not sure who my vote went to in that convoluted tally system the conservative party put together. I feel duped. "

Well, who did you put on your ballot, and in what order? Your ballot went to who you ranked highest at that particular ballot stage.

If you ranked Bernier ahead of Scheer, it ultimately went to Bernier. If you put Scheer ahead of Bernier, it went to Scheer. If you only put one name on the ballot, that’s who it went to, and if you put neither, it was discarded once all your selected candidates were removed.
commented 2017-08-29 10:46:17 -0400
Liza Rosie,

It’s not debatable at all. In fact, many people on The Rebel said that they wanted Scheer to be leader and when he won, they were very happy. It wasn’t until after that conservatives felt that there was a bait and switch when Scheer started making comments that they felt were liberal view or that he was supporting liberal positions like the Paris agreement.
commented 2017-08-29 10:38:50 -0400
Jay Kelly,

What good work is The Rebel doing exactly? People have left The Rebel and there has been a huge backlash because what The Rebel is doing isn’t journalism – it is fear mongering, hyperbole, conspiracy theories, bigotry, hate and racism.

It would be great if The Rebel was just reporting the news with a conservative focus, but that isn’t what The Rebel is about and Ezra himself would admit that he is not a journalist.
commented 2017-08-29 10:31:36 -0400
“Scheer is who Canadian conservatives voted for.”
That’s debatable. I’m not sure who my vote went to in that convoluted tally system the conservative party put together. I feel duped.
commented 2017-08-29 10:29:44 -0400
Christopher, not one mention of the other two registered parties. Some of us are seriously looking at other party platforms to see if there is a home there for our vote. Andrew Scheer will, at least, for now, watch our wallet and try to leave a little more in it. He’s also a smart debater and lightyears ahead of boy blunder in grey matter. Like it or not, he will be an improvement over what we now have. Christopher’s thought process seemed to leave a lot out.
commented 2017-08-29 10:28:46 -0400
Ron Joseph, doesn’t the immigrant vote trump the Quebec vote? Is Quebec as important as it used to be?
commented 2017-08-29 07:07:27 -0400
“Is there a Trudeau slayer/Scheer kingmaker among NDP leadership contenders?”

Scheer as King? Now THAT’s as funny as thinking of Charles as King!
commented 2017-08-29 04:49:52 -0400
I would gladly vote for any party leader candidate that is from Northern Manitoba.
commented 2017-08-29 01:43:13 -0400
Sarah Stallone if Justin wins again who will liberals blame for everything?
commented 2017-08-29 01:19:55 -0400
“The Media Party journalists who have already written our obituary…” Christopher Wilson should leave a line like that out of his comments. Why focus on the critics of The Rebel? Why not focus on the good work The Rebel is doing. Just because Brian Lilley is gone does not mean The Rebel has no more real journalists. Some would argue that Ezra Levant is a strong journalist. Why not focus on that?

I think the Globe and Mail article shows that The Rebel is still relevant: https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/why-did-it-take-so-long-for-the-conservatives-to-denounce-the-rebel/article36088082/
commented 2017-08-29 00:43:25 -0400
BTW – the abandonment of the working class will sting Trudeau in the next election as he continues t shut down the nation’s economic sustaining productivity.
commented 2017-08-29 00:28:35 -0400
The NDP have become an irrelevant rump party for fringe fanatics ever since it abandoned the working man and made him an ideological eneny.
commented 2017-08-28 23:54:03 -0400
Dan Mancuso,

If you think elections may stop – you need to go outside and get some fresh air, because obviously you need a break from the fear mongering and hyperbole that gets pumped into your veins by The Rebel.
commented 2017-08-28 23:20:05 -0400
Conservatives, Reform, no matter what we are called doesn’t matter unless we have Quebec on side. O’Leary ’s numbers experts suggested Bernier could take 37 seats in Quebec, plus an automatic 10 in the Atlantic Provinces. (New Brunswick)
Starting the 2019 election in Ontario with 47 seats would be light-years ahead of what Harper had.
SARAH STALLONE seems to know her politics; Sheer cannot deliver.
commented 2017-08-28 23:15:46 -0400
That was very hard to watch – no reflection on your delivery CHRISTOPHER.
The future is bleak indeed.
I wonder if there’s odds somewhere on whether Canada will even have another federal election…the way things are going.
commented 2017-08-28 22:07:31 -0400
I haven’t watched this yet.

None the less.

There’s something about Nikki Ashton that I just don’t like. I don’t know if it’s the mom in me who is insulted that a woman about to birth twins is so disinterested in them that she’s still in the race to become PM instead of wanting to take advantage of the fact that they’re only young once.

None – the – less. What I DO like about her, is in the debates with Quebec, she took time to research and acknowledge that Quebec has been working to separate church and state since the 60s and the whole no burka when receiving a government service thing is not anti-muslim but simply upholding the values of the province.

I appreciate someone who takes the time to gather knowledge rather than just blah blah-ing ignorance.
commented 2017-08-28 21:52:44 -0400
I voted Erin O’Toole first on my ballot, and stand by that decision.
commented 2017-08-28 21:36:30 -0400
Maurice Potvin,

Scheer is who Canadian conservatives voted for. No one wanted Leitch, which leads me to believe that the majority of conservatives in Canada are most likely fiscally conservative, but socially liberal in CERTAIN aspects and Scheer fits that mold.
commented 2017-08-28 21:28:01 -0400
The scenario you described also is an opportunity for a REAL conservative option (see Reform Party) coming up with enough seats to influence a minority gov’t.
If the left is split between the Libranos, Greens, and NDP, the right might withstand a split between the centre-left CPC and a new centre-right party.
Through an exclusive focus on designated ridings where the Libs/NDP are unlikely to come up the middle, the new REAL conservative option should run candidates (such as rural Alberta). They can also run candidates in ridings where the CPC never has a chance (just to promote centre-right policies), like in many urban ridings.
Could make for an interesting election.
From The Ground Up