August 28, 2015

Learn how to read election polls in five minutes

Brian LilleyArchive

As a long time political and campaign reporter, I've had to learn interpret all the sometimes contradictory polls that we're inundated with during every election campaign.

Different methodology makes some polls more reliable than others.

Don't take any polls at face value. You have to dig deeper, below the headlines, to determine how useful they are.

(Always remember, for example, that regional differences will skew national results.)

So let's look at the latest polls about the Canadian federal election:

Is the NDP really in the lead?

Who has the all important "path to victory"?

Watch and I'll walk you through the results.



SIGN UP FREE for exclusive Election 2015 coverage from The Rebel team!

JOIN OUR CROWDFUNDING CAMPAIGN to bring you fearless Canadian election coverage!

Thomas Mulcair wants to be PM, but he holds dual citizenship.
SIGN THE PETITION telling Mulcair to choose: CanadaOrFrance.ca

Comments
You must be logged in to comment. Click here to log in.
commented 2015-08-28 13:16:22 -0400
What polls also show is how many Conservative voters will lie when asked by complete strangers on the phone how they intend to vote. Conservatives make their opinions known at hte ballot box, not to complete strangers on a bus or phone. How can one know exactly who is making the phone call anyway and who is collecting that information? So if asked how I intend to vote I say " Oh Justin all the way, yes sir. I love that Turdeau (or Smitherrman or Dion or Iggie or Martin) Yup. I am Liberal all the way" Then I vote Conservative . All previous municipal, federal and provincial elections (except for Wynne) have proven me right. Then the news media, Star,CBC, and CTV go into apoplexy about how the polls got it all wrong again because it makes them look like idiots.
commented 2015-08-28 13:03:53 -0400
LET’S HAVE FUN SEE WHO’S BEST, SEE WHO’S RIGHT
COME ON, JOIN US NOBODY IS A LOOSER frasbow@live.ca
LET’S HAVE A LITTLE FUN REBELS
HERE ARE THE REBELS WHO ARE HAVING FUN
CHARLES MOULTON, DON MORRIS, JOAN ABERNETHY, BILL COLLINS, JACK RILEY, PETER NETTERVILLE, PAT ANJALT, MARTY ASHFIELD, SYLVIA ANAKA, TOKEN CONSERVATIVE, YVETTE MOZOLl , TOKEN CONSERVATIVE, ROS FELDMAN, DANIEL HUNT & ME FRASER MCBURNEY
PREDICT THE OUT COME OF THE ELECTION
__________seats for the BLOC PARTY
__________seats for the CONSERVATIVE PARTY
__________seats for the GREEN PARTY
__________seats for the LIBERAL PARTY
__________seats for the NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY
LET’S HAVE A CONTEST TO SEE WHO IS RIGHT
I WILL SEND A 1982 UNCIRCULATED CANADIAN SILVER LIKE DOLLAR TO THE WINNER AND A .925 SILVER NECKLACE TO EACH REBEL WHO PREDICTS THE ELECTION.
BUT THE LOOSER’S WILL SEND $10 .00 TO EZRA’S DEFENCE FUND TO HELP DEFEND FREE SPEECH. WHERTHER YOU ARE LEFT WING OR RIGHT WING FREE SPEECH IS THE ISSUE DEFEND IT OR LOOSE IT.
commented 2015-08-28 13:03:48 -0400
The polls after Sept 3 will be interesting due to the bye elections as I keep on about ad nausea, I know.

The other factor is the election length, and the polls at the end of September will be very different. Mr. Harper is the only one of the three who has campaigned as leader of their respective parties; four times at that. He learned from his mistake in 2004, when Mr. Martin campaigned past the finish line to win. I think that, beside the nullifying of public union ads, is the strategy behind the long campaign: Mr. Harper thinks he has the greater endurance like Mr. Marten had in 2004, and will be able to exhaust the opposition.

Mr. Harper is a campaign strategist in the league of Mr. Chretien; that would be a good poly-sci thesis, to compare and contrast the two.
commented 2015-08-28 12:59:12 -0400
It seems a large number of inept Canadians want to rush headlong into Socialist insanity. As Euro countries are falling like dominos . . . I guarantee a Mulcair govt will make ALL of Canada like Quebec . . . dependant and dis-functional.
When will these folks get concerned? When the National Debt nears 5 TRILLION and the Global Banksters are taking over large Swaths of the Country, like say the Oil Sands and Uranium Mines?
Tommy know the WAY to Greece ! ! !
commented 2015-08-28 11:27:26 -0400
I’m sorry. Anyone that votes for any of these idiots is living in that fictional delusional world where you have the illusion of choice. To any and all of the comments on here that state that we NEED a certain politician is like saying we all NEED a cancer that slowly drains us of everything we really do need to survive. Politicians are bought and paid for by mega banks and corporations that are only worried about their own interests, and those interests don’t include you or me. They will say whatever their overlords want them to in order to get themselves elected, then their true agenda can be implemented. Agenda 21 (now Aganda 2030), the Trans Pacific Partnership, Copenhagen 2009, the Climate Change fraud, the list goes on. Everyone needs to wake up and stop accepting the lie that these morons care about you. Polls don’t matter because the people behind them don’t matter. These corporate shills will stop at nothing until we are all subserviant and the good little debt slaves they want us to be. Have fun selecting your Master in this so-called election.
commented 2015-08-28 10:57:35 -0400
If we look at trends, Mulcair is consistently gaining in the polls.

Brian failed to mention two other facts important to interpreting poll results: date taken and context.

The Forum poll that puts Mulcair at 40% was taken at the height of the media coverage of the Duffy trial. That may be the highest his numbers get.

Despite Mulcair’s consistent gains, I think he will begin to slide as we get closer to 19 October.

Add media (youtube, Twitter) coverage of a North American terror attack and presto! A Conservative majority. Or a Conservative minority, depending on the timing.
commented 2015-08-28 10:33:43 -0400
When you poll the union hall meetings, the enn-dee-pee nazi pigs win. Get it???

MOAR sh*tbag MSM fraud – fk right off!!!
commented 2015-08-28 10:28:29 -0400
I will never vote NDP or Liberal. The fact is immigration has hurt conservative values in Canada. The what can you do for me crowd has taken over.
commented 2015-08-28 10:18:01 -0400
This country needs Harper and the Conservatives in order for this country to thrive, the other 2 parties are all about the destruction of the economy. The NDP wants to shut down the Oil Sands as well as all pipe lines within Canada, they want to tax all companies more which we all know is a job killer, more to payroll taxes relates to less jobs for every company, they want to tax people more by having a carbon tax that has shown globally not to work as it destroys the economy. NDP wants to have $15 a day daycare, who pays for that? The list goes on and Mulcair will be the scariest person to ever be PM if elected, he keeps saying one thing while doing another and will never come clean on the economy, sounds just like the NDP in Alberta. They never ran on the destruction of the Oil Sands but they are hell bent on destroying it. Socialists governments destroy economies, they spend other peoples money, look at other socialists governments, they do not last.
commented 2015-08-28 10:00:45 -0400
Quebec really has to start joining the rest of Canada
commented 2015-08-28 09:56:46 -0400
I will never write off our Prime Minister…he is a gem and we will rue the day we lose him…“you don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone”…that is one thing for sure.