April 03, 2017

Marine Le Pen win “very likely”

Rebel Staff

Marine Le Pen can win the French presidency in May — and here’s how. 

Do you remember a French sociophysicist called Serge Galam? You might, but if his name does not sound too familiar, his work almost certainly will.

Back in the summer of 2016, when opinion poll after opinion poll was predicting a Hillary Clinton presidency, Galam — a researcher at the French National Centre for Scientific Research — was pointing to an unlikely Trump victory:

“The Trump phenomenon […] according to a model of opinion dynamics from sociophysics […] was in principle predictable from the start,” he wrote in his paper The Trump Phenomenon: An Explanation from Sociophysics (2016).

Galam is at it again, applying his unique perspective based on combining methods from physics and statistical sociology, to the French presidential contest.

Whilst a quick glance at survey trends reveals that Le Pen looks almost certain to make it through the presidential election’s first round, which is due to take place on April 23, all polls are indicating that she will lose in the second round on May 7 — a vote that puts the first round’s top two candidates against each other in a one-on-one match-up.

But for Galam, the polls are missing out a vitally important factor: abstention, the act of restraining oneself from voting, and how it impacts voter turnout for different candidates.

In an interview with Politico, he asserts that voter abstention, which could be as high as 30 percent, according to a poll by CEVIPOF, is likely to be decisive in the scandal-ridden campaign.

“Obviously, nothing is done yet but [Le Pen’s] election is becoming very likely,” Galam told Politico. “I’m taking a scientific view of this — she needs a turnout differential of about 20 percent to win.”

In other words — as in one potential scenario outlined by Politico and Galam — if Le Pen is projected to lose the second round, the runoff, by 41 to 59 per cent, she could still win if 90 percent of National Front voters turnout against 70 percent for her opponent, “for an overall turnout rate of 79 percent.”

There are innumerable possible outcomes, but the essence is clear: the right-wing firebrand could succeed because a substantial number of people who say they will vote for her rival — which will either be centrist Emmanuel Macron, or centre-right scandal-plagued candidate Francois Fillon — may not actually go to the polls.

In fact, according to the Daily Mail, a former advisor to Nicolas Sarkozy said he would rather ‘go fishing’ when asked to choose between Le Pen and Macron in the second round.

Ultimately, as Galam puts it, “The polls show this: People who want to vote for Marine Le Pen are going to vote for her. And a lot of people will vote against her, but in that group, there is a lot of reticence […] My approach for the [National Front] is different […] What I’m doing is blindingly obvious: I just start from the principle that a voting intention is not the same thing as an actual vote, and work from there.”

Follow Alex on Twitter at @RealAlexanderJ

Comments
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commented 2017-04-04 17:24:27 -0400
Trump’s win wasn’t that surprising. The pollsters didn’t calculate the number of people who wouldn’t admit they were going to vote for him and that added up to a lot of voters. I would say the same dynamic will be in play for Le Pen.
commented 2017-04-04 16:46:45 -0400
Le Pen will win and the leftist fools will blame Russia.
commented 2017-04-04 11:58:01 -0400
my buddy’s mother makes 81 every hour on the internet. she’s been unemployed for 4 months. the previous month her income was 13299 just working on the internet for two hours every day, check
===== http://www.moneytime10.com
commented 2017-04-04 03:13:58 -0400
Oh for Christ sake Allen and Andrew you can do all the pissing matches you want but YOU CAN’T DIVORCE FREE MARKETS FROM DEMOCRACY, no matter what Chretein, Clinton, Harper or certainly Barry say. Way to dive head first into that BS. Question: Why didn’t we just ‘invite’ the soviets into our markets the way we did China? What, fing exactly is the fing difference? China had more slave labour? God, if my kid died in Vietnam and I now have to see this BS, what the F? Hey, at least I now know he REALLY died for nothing. Thanks for the exclamation point assholes.
commented 2017-04-04 01:39:30 -0400
Andrew how are socialist Sweden and Venezuela doing these days? Such Utopias. And the left is why Europe is in such trouble in case you missed it.
commented 2017-04-04 01:36:57 -0400
Andrew Canada is not mostly left. And the EU is about communism pure and simple.
commented 2017-04-04 00:46:34 -0400
ANDREW STEPHENSON commented
“Brexit is the opposite of right wing (which favours open markets and borders)…”
But the EU is really about unelected bureaucracy meddling in every aspect of life in the usual leftist control freak manner. So the Right likes not “open borders” (an equivocation if there ever was one) but less restriction between nations. Open market, yes. Open borders, no.
commented 2017-04-03 22:56:55 -0400
“Peter Netterville commented 5 hours ago
Well, let’s hope Marine Le Pen wins for the sake of France. There appears to be a movement towards the right wing around the Western world. It is sorely needed as the left/socialist have badly screwed up. "

Is there, though? It’s not particularly true in Europe, where politics is its usual chaotic self, Canada’s mostly Left from coast to coast.

Oh, you mean Brexit and Trump? Brexit is the opposite of right wing (which favours open markets and borders), and Trump? Ask the Freedom Caucus how right wing he is.
commented 2017-04-03 22:53:52 -0400
For the sake of Europe, she must win, and Geert must and will win the next time around. It would be a blow to the EU and the diabolical globalist agenda. God speed Marine Le Pen.
commented 2017-04-03 21:57:04 -0400
For the sake of France, I hope Galam is right. It’s time they got a leader who has a brain & won’t stoop & cater to the far left. I don’t think Ms Le Pen will be encouraging more no-go zones & opening her arms to encourage more refugees to migrate there.
commented 2017-04-03 20:13:06 -0400
Let’s hope so. We need this wave of defending the national interest to continue to gain momentum (and I’m not talking anything ultra-right either; just common sense nationalism).
commented 2017-04-03 19:20:39 -0400
SEAN PENSON commented 2 hours ago
She won’t win. She has as much chance to win as her co-nationalists did in the Netherlands.

Of course, how could we be so stupid, they have identical voting system and identical election fraud not to mention the identical turnout percentage and the identical number of parties to chose from.
commented 2017-04-03 18:27:46 -0400
WHEN’ Marine Le Pen wins, she will call for a Referendum, re France leaving the EU. This will result in the EU becoming defunct. Without the UK and then France, the EU is nothing.

The Islamic controlled UN will also become defunct. Unfortunately this will create a situation that makes Canada one of the more desirable Countries for Islamic migration.

JC the 2nd, Justin Trudeau, will become even more wealthy.

Trudeau once said “If you kill your enemy’s, they win”. Let us hope that Justin becomes a winner.
commented 2017-04-03 18:00:03 -0400
Sean Penson who the f*ck are you to deny France their democracy? Go make love to a little boy like your Islamist masters suggest.
commented 2017-04-03 17:56:40 -0400
There is not a snow ball’s chance in hell that she will win. The election will be about as authentic as a Time Square purchased Rolex. I hope i’m wrong, but I doubt it. This fix will be iron clad, and even if it isn’t, how many ‘migrants’ do you think will be allowed to vote? Ask Chretien and Parizeau about that one.
commented 2017-04-03 17:47:59 -0400
Well, let’s hope Marine Le Pen wins for the sake of France. There appears to be a movement towards the right wing around the Western world. It is sorely needed as the left/socialist have badly screwed up.
commented 2017-04-03 17:16:31 -0400
She won’t win. She has as much chance to win as her co-nationalists did in the Netherlands.

If she does win, the Fifth Republic should be abolished, and France should return to the Forth Republic, with a weak presidency
commented 2017-04-03 17:03:39 -0400
For France’s sake, I hope she wins. Her security detail will have to be stepped up drastically, the Islamists are plotting her demise!
commented 2017-04-03 16:26:29 -0400
Since 9/11 – IN THE NAME OF ISLAM (SATAN): 33,066 Attacks, 212,597 Killed, 294,232 Injured that we know of.
commented 2017-04-03 16:25:54 -0400
I can just imagine the media sh*tting a Miata(Andrew Dice Clay) if she wins.
commented 2017-04-03 16:25:02 -0400
Sure as hell hope she wins, the world is in danger. And the left wing twits and media never seem to get that there bs about how Hillary had it in the bag makes her supporters , many of whom were slackers and leeches , far less likely to go out and vote as it requires some effort.
commented 2017-04-03 16:13:36 -0400
I so hope that Marine Le Pen can pull it off.
I often believe that although, if given the chance, Trump could repair our entire world, he shouldn’t have to do it single handed.
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