October 18, 2017

Nenshi’s win: What went wrong (and right) for Alberta conservatives

Sheila Gunn ReidRebel Host | The Gunn Show


Calgary's progressive mayor Naheed Nenshi pulled off an upset victory and was elected to a third term after fighting off his first real challenger, Bill Smith.

Were the polls showing a conservative win wrong?

And why can't conservatives win elections anymore?

Tonight, the Rebel’s Calgary reporter Holly Nicholas and I conduct a post-election analysis about what went right, what went wrong and what this all means for the conservative movement in Alberta between now and the federal election in 2019.

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commented 2017-10-21 09:33:35 -0400
“It has never mattered who votes… it only matters who counts the votes”

Leviticus, if that is true (and in some cases I that is very true), then that is a strong point in favour of making a tamper proof computer driven voting system. The key words here are “tamper proof”. Take as much as possible the partisan human element out of the equation.
commented 2017-10-21 05:12:02 -0400
It has never mattered who votes… it only matters who counts the votes
commented 2017-10-20 09:17:47 -0400
…or we should maybe consider the highly likely possibility that all elections in the last few years have been fixed – somehow!
Because if they aren’t fixed – and the corrupt and lying MSM can only account for so much collusion and criminality that sways elections – that means that the majority of eligible voters in Canada are actually voting for these criminal, treasonous, Globalist, fascist scum like Wynne, Trudeau, Notley, Horgan and Nenshi – seeing a trend?
If that’s the case then it’s time to shut down Justin’s Post National Canada…or what’s left of it!
Better dead than Red… - Give ’em one for me Holly! - SHEILA GUNN REID, I like your sign with the ‘conservatisms’ and how you’ve juxtaposed:

SHOOT
SHOVEL
SHUT UP
MAKE ALBERTA
GREAT AGAIN

Unfortunately, that is what it will eventually come down to… - That ‘shift to the left’ is contrived, it is achieved through social engineering and indoctrination – over generations! The Fabian Society’s MO is ‘penetration and permeation’ – of every institution and organization that has power and/or control over the people…nepotism takes care of the rest. It’s been a long time in the making – and there is no quick fix! - Great analysis and ideas, ladies. - BOLD. OUTSPOKEN. UNAFRAID.
commented 2017-10-20 02:29:39 -0400
Andrew Stephenson part of the reason people were criticizing Nenshi was his BS claim of Racism , that was childish and pathetic.
commented 2017-10-20 02:05:38 -0400
Andrew Stevenson… We agree .
commented 2017-10-19 21:31:07 -0400
Why Calgary? Just why? I let the CPC know how displeased I am with their treatment of The Rebel whenever they come to me asking for money. I’ll be letting my membership expire if they don’t change course.
commented 2017-10-19 18:54:10 -0400
Frank Hohimer, hard to say. I think there were some interesting voting “problems” that we cannot overlook.
commented 2017-10-19 17:15:19 -0400
Tammie Putinski-Zandbelt,

Even if that is true, do you really think it would have gone the other way?
commented 2017-10-19 16:47:05 -0400
Deborah, yes indeed, something stinks! Website crashes, and did previous data save? Add to that running out of ballots & wait-times being up to 2.5 to cast a vote in some areas…
Too many things happened to chalk it up to coincidence.
commented 2017-10-19 14:10:14 -0400
I’ve been hearing that they ran out of ballots 3-hours before the polls closed. Isn’t that odd? And how convenient! We should have a redo on this election, because there should have been a ballot for everyone who was eligible to vote. Something stinks here!
commented 2017-10-19 13:53:15 -0400
I think too far right or too far left and you won’t win the election.

By the way, didn’t polls have Brad Trost or Maxime Bernier as the frontrunners to win and then all of a sudden, Andrew Scheer came out on top?
commented 2017-10-19 13:34:33 -0400
I heard that there was only 31-32 % voter turn-out province-wide. People are fed up with Alberta politics since it all went so far Left a couple of years ago. Our village elected a bigot and an aboriginal racist, for example.
commented 2017-10-19 12:50:25 -0400
Had Calgary been lifted from the reign of Nenshi, it would have been a breath of fresh air. Like a window being opened on a warm spring morning. I could almost feel the breeze and smell the possibilities in the air.

Back to the dank we go. Why are there so few conservatives in municipal politics? It wasn’t that people didn’t come out to vote this time. People were either so involved that the traffic crashed the website or there was tomfoolery and fudging. Either way, considering the turnout and the final numbers, it is hard to believe Nenshi pulled it off this time. I would have thought his race baiting was enough to sink him.
commented 2017-10-19 12:09:21 -0400
“Don MacDonald commented 11 hours ago
There is something wrong with the election results and it really bothers me.
For weeks every newspaper that allowed comments in stories about Nenshi carried comments about Nenshi that were negative Nenshi vs Pro-Nenshi by a huge factor . "

People with axes to grind are invariably the loudest on the internet, far more than their actual numbers would suggest. People that are somewhat satisfied will vote for the incumbent, but not spend their days dishing out vitriol on the internet about his opponents. There’s also a non-trivial chance that thsoe outlier polls showing Nenshi behind … galvanized his supporters to turn out and head off the Conservatives.

“Karan Singh commented 14 hours ago
The only thing which is wrong with conservatives candidates, and a victory, is that they are not ‘Conservatives’ anymore. They are ‘liberal lite”

There’s a reason for this – what some would call “real conservatives” (meaning, presumably, social conservatives), can’t garner more than a quarter, maybe occasionally a third of the vote. The hard left is about the same size. It’s the middle, swing votes that you need to win an election. You can call this “liberal lite” all you want… its’ where most Canadians lie on the political spectrum even in a place like Calgary.

I’d argue that the “real conservatives” are actually part of the problem. By staying home over single issues, you actually help the guy you despise, win. The Left is willing to vote strategically – vote for the guy you’re OK with over the guy you really like, to prevent the guy you hate from winning. I voted for the Liberals not because I’m a Liberal, but because I’m in a swing riding and a vote for my favoured NDP amounted to a vote for Harper.

When the Right stops voting strategically, they stop winning elections – splitting the vote will not result in good outcomes. Talk about boycotting Scheer all you want … you’re splitting the vote which will result in another Liberal government. Is that what you want?

Smith was himself a pretty weak candidate. This is not a right vs left problem… he had no platform beyond a couple vague platitudes about teamwork. He wasn’t a strong candidate anywhere on the spectrum.
commented 2017-10-19 11:54:09 -0400
The one time King to my Queen in Midsummer Night’s Dream, my debating buddy, who once convinced me to worm our way into a PC convention on Free Trade because we were wearing bright blue sweatshirts from an “Inventors and Inventions” conference and he wanted to heckle them, became Mayor of Calgary, it blows my mind. I’ve met a lot of people in my life, and I’ve liked very few as much as I liked Naheed personally. Sorry. I also have lived in BC for 20+ years so I don’t know how his policies have affected Calgary. I kind of think he could be turned, he’s already purple.
commented 2017-10-19 11:42:27 -0400
Polls are not necessarily wrong, but they can certainly lull the electorate into a false sense of comfort leaving many would-be voters (and some candidates) at home believing that the outcome is a foregone conclusion.
Examples:
Polls; “Hillary will win in a landslide”. Reality; Hillary=227, Trump=304
Polls; “Smith ahead by 17 points”. Reality; Nenshi wins.
Trump won, in part because regardless if the polls said he was ahead or behind, he gave everything that was in him, right up to the very end. Hillary did not.
commented 2017-10-19 10:22:37 -0400
Frank Hohimer commented -“There just seems to be very little interest in conservatism in Canada.”

There seems to be more interest in cronyism and pay to play politics.
commented 2017-10-19 08:47:09 -0400
Kudos to Sheila Gunn Reid, and guest, for a great summation of the reasons behind the disastrous re-election of Nenshi as Calgary’s mayor.
commented 2017-10-19 07:44:35 -0400
I think Nenshi winning again confirms that people were happy with him and there isn’t much of a desire for a conservative mayor. As horrible as Katherine Wynne is, I won’t be surprised if she wins again as well. There just seems to be very little interest in conservatism in Canada.
commented 2017-10-19 02:04:26 -0400
Looks like CAlgary has not learned its lesson when it comes to left wing politicians.
commented 2017-10-19 01:41:40 -0400
Even in a man-made recession these leftists get elected. It must have something to do with the schooling, including universities.
commented 2017-10-19 01:33:58 -0400
Perhaps some people here are out of touch with what the rest of Calgary wants.
commented 2017-10-19 00:45:44 -0400
There is something wrong with the election results and it really bothers me.
For weeks every newspaper that allowed comments in stories about Nenshi carried comments about Nenshi that were negative Nenshi vs Pro-Nenshi by a huge factor .
On election night the lineups for some polling stations were jaw dropping in their length – some were 3/4’s the way around a block with a minimum two hour wait. Historically when these types of turnout are seen in elections around the world it is because people want change . It doesn’t make sense that people would put in that time and energy to give an incumbent a third term.
The last notable and cringe worthy incident was that the City Hall election computer which kept the ongoing tallies crashed early in the night with numbers on it. It came back up with no numbers and then crashed again. It then came back up with entirely new numbers and went on from there.
Am I being paranoid ? I don’t know ! – Do you believe your water bill really was $3000 a couple months ago and your meter was accurate ?
Sorry , this election has left me feeling really uneasy .
commented 2017-10-19 00:22:57 -0400
Holly, if so-called ‘conservative’ politicians don’t behave as conservatives, then the bottom line is that they are not true conservatives, but, rather, CINOs.
commented 2017-10-19 00:02:59 -0400
I couldn’t believe the outcome! I even thought the large turnout meant Nenshi would be defeated.
The Mainstreet polls also predict Brian Jean as favoured over Kenney, which, in my view, is a good omen for Kenney.
commented 2017-10-18 23:31:07 -0400
Totally agree. Conservative politicians have been drifting left thinking that is how to corner some left leaning voters. Given that they think all conservatives will stay true to them because we are a proud bunch with strong beliefs. But drifting left apparently does have the effect of, in the very least, turning conservative voters to not vote at all…(shame on you “conservatives”). I think the drum of “I will tax you less and give you more freedom” will always get the liberals leaning right to vote our way rather than “I’m a feminist, who will save the environment, let 421 refugees in and I hope your taxes will go down” will ever get.
The carbon religion also needs to be debunked. Its becoming such an entrenched dogma that even “conservatives” are drinking the koolaid. So glad Trump pulled out of the Paris agreement.
Anyway, I miss bad asses like Ralph Klein.
commented 2017-10-18 23:14:43 -0400
Perhaps some people here are out of touch with what the rest of Calgary wants.
commented 2017-10-18 23:14:10 -0400
It is almost irrelevant whether or not the fiasco over shortage of ballots made a significant difference to the end result of the election, because the fact that it happened at all is absolutely scandalous. This was the biggest voter turnout in decades. Here was a chance to put the lie to the theory that Alberta voters are apathetic, and they blew it because of completely avoidable logistical problems.
There is no imaginable excuse for running out of paper ballots three hours before polls close.
It’s a disgrace.
commented 2017-10-18 23:00:03 -0400
It is too bad Michel Rempel didn’t run for Mayor, because Nenshi will now be sooooo full of himself, he will run for Provincial or Federal politics next time.
Meanwhile, he’ll let everyone know, he owns Calgary.
commented 2017-10-18 22:54:58 -0400
Will Nenshi be humbled? He will be even more insufferable.
It was pretty close considering. Nenshi was just damn lucky. It’s not like people wanted to vote in a big spender, race baiter. So he doesn’t think he can be racist because he’s brown? Well don’t that just say it all.
If Rempel wasn’t so needed in Ottawa and had run, Nenshi would not have had a chance.