October 15, 2015

Poll: Harper leads, within sight of majority (plus or minus 2.5 martinis)

Mitch WolfeRebel Blogger

In a recent poll by Wolfe Analytics (a local polling company created, commissioned and retained exclusively for me personally), the Conservatives are at 38%, the Liberals 33%, the NDP 24%, and the remaining left wing nuts and nation-destroying separatists are split between the Green Party and the Bloc Quebecois.

When these numbers are extrapolated over all the seats at play in this election, the Tories should win a decisive majority, the Liberals will form the official opposition, and “Angry and Stoppin Tom” Mulcair will soon be dropped like a hot poutine and hereafter known as “Tom Who?”

This new polling group, Wolfe Analytics, eschewed the more commonplace modern polling methods, i.e., those annoying interactive robo calls.

Instead, we assembled a highly inebriated polling sample, up close and personal, in two upscale Toronto bars and one downscale pub.

Since intensive and comprehensive one-on-one interviews were de rigueur, the polling sample was admittedly a little thin, but still very representative of the greater Canadian electorate from Victoria to Peggy’s Cove.

Here are some representative results of the polling sample:

One of the first persons interviewed was Andie, a blonde 30-something inner suburban housewife in North Toronto, who will be voting for Harper because of his tough fiscal policies.

Next came a 30-something Asian woman, also married with child, living in downtown Toronto. Surprisingly, she was also voting for Harper because of his strong fiscal policies, thinks Trudeau is an intellectual lightweight, and identified herself as a proud member of "Ford Nation."

I next interviewed a Latin American-born 50-something mother and her 30-something daughter. Both will be voting for Harper and ignoring the featherweight pugilist Justin. 

I then spent a good deal of time at another restaurant/bar, Kasa Moto, where I interviewed a whole range of men and women. Among this group, Harper won the approval of the majority of the men voting, while Trudeau and Mulcair split the "hot chick" vote fairly evenly.

At the Four Seasons d/bar, I interviewed a group of 20-something hip downtown urban dudes and cool young women. Shockingly, the vote split among this group: Harper 2, Trudeau 2 and Mulcair 1.

Clearly, Harper and the Conservatives are resonating mostly with men, both urban, suburban and rural in Ontario, along with those in have-not Atlantic Eastern provinces. He is also popular with men and women alike in Quebec, the prairie provinces and BC.

Trudeau’s numbers reflect a strong urban base, with pockets of strong Liberal support in downtown Toronto, Montreal,  in the Atlantic provinces and in urban BC.

This unscientific and subjective poll may not be bang on mathematically accurate, but it does provide an interesting snapshot of a downtown Toronto urban/suburban group, who, surprisingly, are strongly in the Harper camp.  

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commented 2015-10-21 00:13:49 -0400
You really called it on this one. What a fucking joke.
commented 2015-10-16 22:31:48 -0400
Despite the amateurish look of the videos I do like the title: “Every Vote Counts.” Please encourage your friends to vote and even offer to drive them to the poll if they would like.
If you need a ride to the poll, call a candidate’s office and they will most likely have someone willing to drive you.
commented 2015-10-16 12:32:42 -0400
God help this country if Trudeau wins.I can just here the bitching, whining and complaining (should the Liberals win) when we have to start paying higher taxes and so much more not to mention sending this country into huge dept ( for example, take a look at the Liberal regime in Ont under the rule of Liberal leaders Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne…so much dept, higher hydro rates, higher taxes, credit rating has been down graded). Trudeau talks about all of these goodies that he promises.Ever think where the money is going to come from.You guessed it, straight out of our pockets.I have never forgotten the many scandals that occurred when the Liberals were in power not to mention the billions of dollars gone missing.And who can forget the dark yrs of Liberal rule when they almost destroyed our once proud military and the soft on crime approach.So if your going to vote Liberal you’d better give this some serious thought.You may dislike Stephen Harper but his policies are far better for Canada then the Liberals or the NDP.
commented 2015-10-16 11:36:10 -0400
Hey Timmy, where are you? Jimmy needs his meds again.
commented 2015-10-16 07:22:09 -0400

If Trudeau wins – then that must be God’s plan, since Jesus pretty much taught socialism if you know anything about Jesus and would be deemed that by today’s standards if he was around today. He ain’t joining up with Republicans/conservatives and their focus on the almighty dollar.

I certainly hope to see those changes, so that Canada can go back to what it used to be before Harper got a hold of things.
commented 2015-10-16 06:54:45 -0400
Thanks for coming out Jimmy! As Jesus said to the effect, if you are not a believer, then you are already condemned. Oh, and Jimmy, 100% of biblical prophecies have already come true, and the world stage is being set right now, for the final battle, between good and evil, and in the end good will prevail! Peace be with you Jimmy, and all those who choose not to see the truth. If Harper doesn’t win a majority, you are going to see changes that you never imagined possible.
commented 2015-10-16 00:27:55 -0400
It’s laughable that people here think that if God exists – he gives a fuck about our federal election. It’s like football players that thank God after a win as if he had something to do with it.

Pray if that gives you comfort, but if there is a God, he doesn’t care who wins here. He’s not wearing a shirt that says Team Harper.
commented 2015-10-16 00:23:44 -0400
sure hope you are right Deborah. And Mitch I prayed tonight too. I said “perhaps we deserve Trudeau as a society but many of us do not deserve him”
commented 2015-10-15 22:11:45 -0400
Spot on Robert Hewgill. Spot on.
commented 2015-10-15 21:21:57 -0400
Mitch, I hope you’re right, because I too pray every night for Mr. Harper to win. I hope that Mr. Harper wins with a majority & then points to a picture of Trudeau & says “STICK IT”. If Trudeau wins, I will have to turn off the TV.
As for family & friends, very difficult for me to zip my mouth, but most time have to do it to avoid a battle. Very frustrating, but I send them Rebel videos instead, hoping they will wake up.
commented 2015-10-15 21:18:41 -0400
If anyone but Harper wins I’m done working. I don’t want to be a slave in their socialist utopia.
commented 2015-10-15 19:21:28 -0400
Mitch you can do the country a favour and keep buying rounds to keep these inebriates where they are until the polls close.
commented 2015-10-15 19:01:51 -0400
I love a reporter that’s not afraid to take it to the trenches! Great work Mitch!
commented 2015-10-15 18:23:35 -0400

Seriously? Your love for Harper is more important than your family? Just don’t engage in political discussion, but still make the effort to be a good son and brother. Don’t take it so seriously.
commented 2015-10-15 14:27:46 -0400
Jason Bertucci – I wouldn’t call it love, I would say the Liberals have their placeholder in Trudeau, based on name only. He didn’t inherit any of the intelligence that dear old dad possessed. It is those behind Junior that are dangerous to Canada. Don’t be fooled by the polls, they are used to incite anger in the people, by those who are playing games with the electorate.
commented 2015-10-15 14:07:31 -0400
I don’t understand the love for the shiny pony but he is loved for some odd reason. Maybe Canadians just love elitists. Sadly it looks like the trend is to Trudeau. Perhaps this means Canadians really want to be over run with Muslim refugees.
commented 2015-10-15 12:25:11 -0400
Steve Martin – I can certainly relate to your comments. I have a younger sister that I haven’t spoken to in over 2-years. She and her husband are dyed in the wool Liberals, and think the whole world owes them whatever their hearts desire. I got sick of her constant digs about me being conservative. My daughter stated that she voted conservative on her FB, and she was attacked, by those who think that they can bully anyone into changing their votes, or shame them before the world. Those attacking her included my sister, and her husband. She had to remove her FB notice, due to all the negative attacks she received. I don’t have FB and never will. I’ll be damned if open myself to these communist freaks, who are just your garden variety communist bullies, without the depth of character, to allow others to have a different opinion than they have.
commented 2015-10-15 11:17:56 -0400
I hope your poll is right.I’m voting for Stephen Harper.You know Mitch I was up at my folks place last yr and the topic of politics came up.I mentioned to my Father that I liked Stephen Harper and he went into such a rage (his hatred for Stephen Harper) that I walked out of the house and came home.The other day I wrote on my Facebook wall that I liked Stephen Harper and my brother seen this and started writing all sorts of mean spirited, sarcastic comments on my wall.I told him to stop because I believe that it is my right as a Canadian to vote for whom I please.I couldn’t believe how some people can behave in such a matter.I’m no longer talking to my brother and my relationship with my Father is very limited.I believe no one should have to endure this kind of treatment from anyone based on one’s choice of candidate and Party.
commented 2015-10-15 11:00:22 -0400
I am praying for PM Harper to wipe the floor with the opposition parties. God, please make it so, for those of us who love our freedoms, living in the best democratic country in the world. Our freedoms, that were bought and paid for by the blood of our men and women, who fought to keep us free! We need to uphold that torch, and never forget that we were created as individuals, by a loving God, to be unique and free, not by a bandit ghost, who is the devil himself.