April 29, 2015

The Coming Death of the Liberal Party of Canada

MJ SheppardRebel Blogger

As you, the gentle reader, will soon learn, I enjoy calling out the federal Tories because I don’t think that they’re all that conservative. Some guys play golf. This is what I do. 

Of course, my opposition to the Tories is often taken to mean that I support the Liberals, which I do not. I’ve voted in eight federal elections, not one of them for the Grits. Stephen Harper, on the other hand, came of political age as a Trudeau supporter in Leaside, here in Dreaded Toronto.

Also, I think that the Liberals are pretty much done. If they survive into the 2019 election in any recognizable form, they’ll be lucky.

Justin Trudeau is the most inferior leader the Grits have ever had. Not only were Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff intellectual titans in comparison, they were better politicians. Their vote collapsed because the Great Liberal Civil War was ongoing. Given several anonymous quotes by Liberal insiders to the media in recent weeks, it still hasn’t stopped.

The factions within the LPC fear and despise one another far more than they do the Conservatives or the New Democrats. And that was fine, so long as the Conservatives and New Democrats were busy marginalizing themselves. That, recent history tells us, is no longer the case.

A very politically-connected and very, very smart friend of mine and I sat down a few weeks ago and took a look at the map.  It didn’t take long for us to conclude that Justin Trudeau isn’t likely to bring home more than 70 seats, total, on election night.  I’ve been saying that in public for quite some time, but my friend was shocked by it. Barring a Conservative disaster, that means that the Liberals will remain the third party in Parliament.

If that happens, Trudeau the Younger will face the challenge of delivering a concession speech with dozens of knives in his back. Ignatieff survived until the next morning, which I don’t believe Justin will. The last federal Liberal leader to get another bite at the apple after losing was John Turner, and that was thirty years ago. The governing rule since then has been “one and done.”

Yes, Justin Trudeau is a stunt, given the crown almost entirely because he has pretty hair and his father had a cool job. But he is also supposed to deliver the party to the Promised Land. If he doesn’t, he’s done, and the party is all out of stunts. They have an astronaut, whose name most folks can’t remember, but that’s it.

Unlike the NDP or the old Progressive Conservative, Reform or Canadian Alliance parties, the Liberal Party of Canada isn’t particularly overwrought about policy matters; they existed solely to win elections. They don’t believe that ideology should ever get in the way of winning, but as a consequence of that philosophy, their losers are treated in a way that’s more common to the animal kingdom than it is modern western civilization.  But they were, until very recently, the most successful party in the history of representative democracy, so who am I to argue?

However, it begs an important question: What happens to what is essentially an election winning machine when it stops winning elections? Who stands as candidates for it? Who gives it money?

I believe that the answer to that is clear. No one does.

If the Conservatives retain a majority and the NDP remains the opposition (both of which I believe to be far more likely than not), the Grits will disintegrate. Their membership and, more importantly, their professionals, will begin looking for new homes in the Conservative Party and the NDP. There might be a husk of Canada’s Natural Governing Party going into 2019, but I don’t expect there to be more than that.

The consequences of that will be fascinating, and I intend to explore them in a future post. 


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commented 2015-07-25 07:58:33 -0400
Canada has typically been a two-party parliamentary democracy, and maybe it’s just time for the Grits to fade away, to be replaced by the NDP.
commented 2015-05-05 12:55:16 -0400
Justin Trudeau is the “Hail Mary pass” of the Liberal party. This has to work in October or they are done.
commented 2015-05-02 09:21:16 -0400
Just one thing;

“Their vote collapsed because the Great Liberal Civil War was ongoing.”

Wrong. Their vote collapsed for two reasons-

1 – Traditionally as election day nears, Canadians stop thinking of politics as a poor man’s SNL and start to listen closely to what the politicians are saying. What the ‘born to rule’ Liberals said just did not resonate with the Canadian electorate and when the chips were down, Canadians said “NO!”.

2 – Canadians roundly rejected the failed, stale, unsupportable left wing policies of the enviro-driven Liberals. There was no ‘great liberal civil war’. The election results represented the wholesale rejection of the Liberals and their socialist agenda.
commented 2015-04-30 19:08:14 -0400
You have a well thought out thesis there MJ but there is one aspect of Fed-Lib reality that puts a major road block in your train of logic – they (LPC) have their roots deep in the Canadian oligarchy and that oligarchy has nowhere else to park its support, influence and ample money. Only the elitism of LPC party politics suits their world view and represents their agendas. I disagree that the Liberals stand for nothing – they stand for the entrenched power elite – the cloistered Canadian 1%. They are clannish self-interested plutocrats and they have spent decades sculpting narratives to convince grass roots and working class Canadians that this LPC power brokerage for elites and oligarch interests is actually a mom and pop, back bacon, beer swigging, canoe paddling, beaver tossing hoser party – a natural Canadian governing party (which is a slogan with a double entendre given the Liberals patrician roots). Boob Rae was a connected (Saul Rea and Uncle Mo Strong’s boy) inept silver spoon ideologue who ruined Ontario and had that baggage weighing him down. Iggy was out of touch because he was a cloistered elite insider (like his roommate Boob Rae) who was visibly uncomfortable around 1%er fly-over country people. Dion – ditto but with a language-culture barrier that POed most people outside Quebec – detached elitist academic. PET- another irresponsible remittance elitist sold as a playboy sex symbol. The LPC has always been about selling 1% agendas as “Canadian” agendas and their leaders have always been 1%ers or boot-licks for 1%ers ( like Chretien and Martin). Do you think that the Canadian Oligarchy will allow their only puppet political association to go to dust in the wind – Don’t think so MJ.

A political party to service the oligarchs will always be around – maybe with a new coat of paint or a new façade and new deceitful narrative but it will survive because it has an important job – to legislate policy amiable to the power elite –Harper’s coalition and the Dips are too populist to do this their constituency would smell elitism on them in a heartbeat and abandon them for a new reform movement. Nope, the elite are stuck with the LPC – they will repackage it, find a new judas goat to lead it and change the marketing (they own the media so this is not an issue) but it will always be around in some form.
commented 2015-04-30 16:22:22 -0400
For me, the Chretien Liberals 1995 gun control act was the defining moment for the end of the Liberal party of Canada. This outright attack on law abiding Canadians, an attempt to disarm Canadians at the behest of certain special interest groups, Chretien’s threats of ten years in prison for those who did not comply, was a rallying cry that began a 15 year battle that culminated in the end of the gun registry. Their draconian and totalitarian and unjustified and sexist gun control scheme still exists of course but at least it has been altered to be somewhat less onerous. Work still needs to be done.
The Liberals were finally seen as the tyrants that they really are and they lost a great deal of support. We all know that Trudeau and the Liberals would try to resurrect the gun registry in some form at the urging of their special interest friends and so they should never be able to form a government again.
Gun owning Canadian citizens living under the dark shadow of the gun registry and the gun control act suffered years of intimidation and stress and worry and nobody should ever have to go through that again.
Justin Trudeau just does not have what it takes to be a prime minister. He is a coddled rich kid academic and just does not have the experience or wisdom to do the job.
commented 2015-04-30 14:50:47 -0400
What a great article MJ Sheppard. You tell it like it is! Thank you for this piece. Great writing. I shared it on FB. Look forward to reading more articles by you!
commented 2015-04-30 11:30:06 -0400
Don’t want to see them go away completely. We need them to split the left wing vote between themselves and the dippers. They may have been reduced pseudo lefties and shiny suits but they still have a purpose.
commented 2015-04-30 08:52:01 -0400
When troodo speaks, you can already see the sweat pouring from his forehead. Troodo’s stuttering (um-um-um-uh-uh-uh) is only going to get worse and the stupid stuff that flows out of you yap is only going to get more entertaining.

MOAR taxes, MOAR carbon taxes, MOAR unions – yep – troodo is going to get the beating of his life.
commented 2015-04-30 08:19:21 -0400
If the greedy Libertarians split the right, …
commented 2015-04-30 00:28:02 -0400
Interesting take. If the libs die…and one can only hope as they have been a plight on the Canadian economic landscape. Truedouche sr switched to private banking system for national debt THEN went on a drunken sailor spending spree…funny that…timing and all… but I digress. If iggy and dion are big brains – truly – then my God Ottawa is in a world of hurt and so is the RoC. They spewed nonsense…dion wanting to tax everything (justin with renamed 2.0 version), and iggy’s let’s build a high speed train across a nation that’s mostly empty. Thanks iggy..did you get your doctorate with that kind of ‘common sense’ and high level thinking or did you pull that out of gumball machine. Apparently a political adviser…still wrapping my brain around that concept. If the libs go tits up you’ll get something that looks like the current Alberta PC…who pretty much look like some Frankenstein dipper liberal abomination. As for this coming election…it’ll be a true experiment in how swayed people can be by a message being delivered to them ad nauseam ie; what ever tripe truedumb spews via butts (there’s a gag in there). I mean Ontario just gave wynn A MAJORITY after screwing people in ways I didn’t think possible. So really all bets are off…
commented 2015-04-29 20:45:12 -0400
I hope you are right. I would hate to think where we would be if the conservative airhead Belinda was currently running the country.
commented 2015-04-29 20:29:06 -0400
“the Liberal Party of Canada isn’t particularly overwrought about policy matters; they existed solely to win elections. They don’t believe that ideology should ever get in the way of winning,” And I thought I was the only one who believed that.
commented 2015-04-29 20:23:21 -0400
the only person i beleive who could beat harper if he were still running as a liberal but he isn’t and he is now a conservative supporter would be John Manley. only because John Manely gets the economy and he will not put us into Kyoto.
commented 2015-04-29 19:01:47 -0400
how long before everyone knows/admits that the actual liberal leader is gerald butts..
commented 2015-04-29 19:00:13 -0400
i have said all along….chretien, martin, dion, iggy, then ndp bob rae and now the empty but oh so expensive suit….the liberal death spiral is reaching a climax..
commented 2015-04-29 18:39:55 -0400
Not about ideology? I dismissed a Liberal canvasser because his party does not really permit candidates to be pro life (I am the sort of Catholic who votes my church, not my pop women’s mag).

He smirked, wrote something down in a little book, and moved on. If the Justin circus succeeds, I could well pay later, of course.

He knows that most “Catholics” will vote their union or pop women’s mag and not their church, even staring down the maw of euthanasia. They will sell their grandchildren’s civil liberties for the price of a cottage. Then they won’t get the cottage anyway (environment issues).

All this said, I recall that in times of crisis of competing values, “centrist” parties tend to decline. So maybe we can ward off the dynasty. Maybe Thomas “don’t call him a terrorist” Mulcair will be a cold shower. But will he wake anyone up?
commented 2015-04-29 17:35:08 -0400
“With him as Prime Minister I can just see the prayer that is supposed to be said at the beginning of a session of Parliament being replaced by a optional “Funny Cigarette” being passed around the hallowed chambers.” Or leading off with an Islamic prayer of sorts, given his pandering to the Muslims. Just a thought.
commented 2015-04-29 16:50:34 -0400
Justin Trudeau is an embarrassment to the great and not so great Liberal leaders of Canada’s past. Even his Father who I actually voted for had more class and intelligence in his baby finger that this person does. Notice I didn’t say “Man” when I referred to him? That’s because little Justin doesn’t have a male or manly persona to him in the least. He is a boy-man if anything, living off a trust fund, and his poor dead Father’s name. All he has in his mind is “Legalize Pot”, doesn’t he see what “Pot” did to his Mother? He’s even managed to convince the newly replaced Toronto Police Chief Bill Blair to do a 180 on his drug views all for the sake of some political hay making. Don’t get me started on Bill Blair, he gives all the other Chief’s before him a black eye and is an embarrassment to his old uniform. But I digress, Justin is not ready for prime time anything, let alone running the country of Canada. With him as Prime Minister I can just see the prayer that is supposed to be said at the beginning of a session of Parliament being replaced by a optional “Funny Cigarette” being passed around the hallowed chambers.
commented 2015-04-29 16:49:57 -0400
The coming death of the Liberal Party of Canada" Not soon enough in my opinion. They morphed from a Centrist Party in the eary 60"s to one of entitlement, leftist policies, and quasi dictatorship tendencies started by Justin’s father, Pierre. Their only raison d’etre over the last 30 to 40 years seems to be grab power at any cost or deception, and reward their friends with taxpayer money once they are ensconced in office. I will not weep at their passing in the current form. Canada will be better off without them. Our democracy will be stronger as policticos will have to explain their committments to Canada and be acccoutable to them, not the empty platitudes we having been hearing lately from Junior.
commented 2015-04-29 15:09:56 -0400
Yes, I agree with most of this analysis. I’ve been thinking for some time that liberals would remain the third party after next election. And it is quite possible that they will be even more marginalized as a national party entity after that. We’ll have to wait and see.
commented 2015-04-29 14:15:42 -0400
Looking forward to more.
commented 2015-04-29 13:37:27 -0400
I won’t miss them. Good riddance.