Almost as if by magic, the Bank of England came out with a report today that might just scare enough people into opting for Theresa May’s Brexit deal.
Bank of England governor Mark Carney gave a press conference, offering some pretty dire predictions for the UK economy in the event of a No Deal Brexit. He told the press that the UK economy might shrink by 8 per cent if we left without a deal, house prices could fall by almost a third, and that the pound could fall by a quarter. I even heard on the news today that immigration figures might even enter negative figures, which is interesting.
The thing is, though, it’s all just possibilities.
“These are scenarios, not forecasts. They illustrate what could happen not necessarily what is most likely to happen.
Taken together the scenarios highlight that the impact of Brexit will depend on the direction, magnitude and speed of the effect of reduced openness of the UK economy.”
These predictions are based on the worst possibilities, and of course ignore the fact that President Trump offered Theresa May a free trade deal four months ago (which she rejected), and the many possibilities for trading outside the European Union.
Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg had some choice words for Mark Carney, too. He told the press today:
“Mark Carney is a second-tier Canadian politician who failed to get on in Canadian politics and then got a job in the UK. I don’t think he’s greatly respected, and he’s been deeply politicised to the damage of the Bank of England’s reputation. The Bank of England is meant to be impartial, set interest rates avoiding politics, for the benefit of the economy – and he’s talking about racking interest rates up to 5% because he’s cross about Brexit. I’m afraid his reputation has fallen even faster than his economic forecasts predict.”
Carney’s predictions serve only to scare the public. It’s almost too convenient.
I’ve been saying for a while that Theresa May must have a trick up her sleeve to scare people into voting for her terrible deal, and perhaps this was part of it. Even the carmakers in the UK have suddenly piped up warning about a No Deal Brexit, claiming it will be “catastrophic.”
I’m not into conspiracy theories, but this has to be pre-planned. Theresa May has warned that it’s her deal or no deal, and it likely is. We can’t renegotiate the deal in time, it’s unlikely we can extend Article 50 – so when March 29th comes along, if we aren’t signed up to Theresa’s deal then you can bet we’re leaving the EU without a deal.
Now we just have to wait and see if the Commons sees it this way.