Labour’s story since electing Jeremy Corbyn as leader has been rocky. For the most part, Labour have stayed a rather static 40 per cent-ish before the General Election, after the General Election, and throughout Brexit negotiations.
But I’m beginning to wonder whether things might be changing.
Labour remains unclear on their Brexit position. Half the party wants to remain, many MPs want to stay in the Customs Union and Single Market, but traditional Brexiteer Jeremy Corbyn is vowing to respect the wishes of the people. His position that Brexit should mean Brexit – at least, sort of – has led to his supporters chanting "Where’s Jeremy Corbyn?" in place of the usual "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn."
It’s a right old mess for Labour, and as their Remain voters move over to the Liberal Democrats, it looks like the Tories are back on top. The latest news from YouGov/Times shows that the Conservatives are now on 42 per cent - unchanged from last week’s poll – and Labour is way down to 37 per cent. This is down from 40 per cent, last week.
The Lib Dems stay on 9 per cent, which is unchanged from last week, but the "other" parties are now receiving 12 per cent over last week’s 10 per cent. That means more are willing to move over to non-mainstream parties. It could mean that some traditional Labour voters are going back to UKIP, but in truth I can’t really see that happening. Most Brexiteers are hoping the Tories will pull it off, and UKIP has become largely irrelevant since the election of Henry Bolton.
With 2019 looming – the year that UKIP loses all its MEPs – and the next council election sure to see UKIP lose the rest of its elected local representatives, voters know they’re potentially hitching their wagon to a dead horse.
So where are people going? Well, it looks to me that more people are simply unsure about who they’ll support, and others might well be moving over to other pro-Remain parties. Remember, it’s not just the Liberal Democrats who want to overturn the EU referendum. The Greens and a multitude of other smaller parties are keen to overturn the will of the people.
It could also even mean the SNP are winning back some of the support that shifted over to Labour in the last election.
In the long term, this might not mean much. But if the figures stay this way for another few weeks, it could be a sign that Labour’s indecisiveness on Brexit has cost the party its core voter base. By shifting its focus from the traditional working class and over to far-left loonies and young people – and then ditching them over Brexit – the party has potentially signed its own death warrant.
And with Theresa May being considered the best option for Prime Minister by 38 per cent of people, compared to 26 per cent for Corbyn, I wonder whether this might be giving the Tories hope for another General Election. The question is, though:
Will Theresa May make the same mistake twice?