July 29, 2015

With election looming, Ipsos Reid CEO explains what latest polls are showing

Brian LilleyArchive

I sit down with pollster Darrell Bricker, CEO of Global Public Affairs for Ipsos Reid, to get a rundown on current polling data.

We go through the numbers in detail, looking at the outlook for each party, region by region, but as Darrell says, "We're just at the starting blocks and anything can happen in a campaign."


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commented 2015-08-01 22:52:04 -0400
Can Mulclair run with two citizenships? When will that get in the news?
commented 2015-08-01 01:29:48 -0400
I SURVIVED the NDP! Poster for sale, by Albertan who moved to B.C. in 1977 to take advantage of NDP induced doom and gloom in B.C. https://en.wikipedia.org/…/British_Columbia_New_Democratic_… where it is said, "The BC NDP is the provincial arm of the federal New Democratic Party (NDP). Unlike other parties in Canada, where provincial and federal politics and parties are strictly separated and members of one are not necessarily members of the other, NDP members are automatically members of both the federal and provincial party. Want to know what Mulchair will do to Canada if he ever becomes Prime Minister? All you have to do is look at what the NDP did in every province including B.C. and now Alberta! God keep us strong and NDP socialist free!
commented 2015-07-31 23:44:17 -0400
Anne….I have to agree with you if that pill is as dangerous as you say. But, not voting is not going to change anything, instead protesting to Rona Ambrose & your MP is what those so us who care should do & perhaps something can be done by the Feds to take this pill off the market.
True North, I certainly hope that you are right. If indeed we are in a recession now with the Conservatives running the country, just think of what’s in store for us after the election if they don’t form the next gov’t. Most of the provinces have lefty leaders who are spending like there’s no tomorrow, running up the debt & instead of putting their hands back in their pockets …..no….they see nothing wrong with what they are doing ……& think…..oh well, we’ll just ask for more bailout money, but what they don’t seem to have is the common sense to realize that the piggy bank of Alberta is getting smaller & the only piggy bank left will be in Sask. Nothing good ever happened to any of the provinces who have been run by the NDP so how many times do these people have to be slapped around before they wake up.
commented 2015-07-31 23:03:09 -0400
Otherwise Brian, on Pollsters. When my opinion has to Qualify, or with these new Telephone Polls,
where the paw prints of the family pet Qualify, how can you believe any Polling results? I don’t exactly recall,
was the NDP even on the Pollster’s radar in the last AB election? I could have moved faster.
commented 2015-07-31 22:53:38 -0400
Damn it Anne, are you off your meds again?
You just can’t find reliable Attendees anymore!
With Abortions readily available, at Taxpayers expense, and the proliferation of Gay Pride,
who gives a s—- about a little pill?
commented 2015-07-31 18:39:22 -0400
I have a friend who compares Harper to Hitler, I told her she watches/listens too much CBC. However, right now, I’m so disillusioned I may not vote at all this election because I’m more concerned about the dangerous RU-486Bill which got passed by the Fed. Conservatives, for the morning after pills which cause abortion and the side effects are terrible! Heavy bleeding, pain in the uterus etc. I’m willing to bet that the Federal Health Minister Rona Ambrose is behind this. Women can be SO STUPID! And so will Harper be if he lets her get away with it! Because I will not vote. This is outrageous! Women have died in the U.S. taking this pill!! Why is it women are so gullible as if a baby is the worst thing to happen to them? Sorry I’m off topic but if these so called feminists would only appreciate that the one thing they can do that men will NEVER be able to do is GIVE BIRTH! So, if they really want to be unique, they already are and need to stop destroying the one thing that makes them so. WOMEN! EEEK! And who do you think will be conned into taking this pill, young, impressionable, uninformed girls that’s who! Rona Ambrose should be fired, because these pills can kill!

There’s so much help today in Crisis Pregnancy Centres, there’s no excuse for women to put themselves through this!
commented 2015-07-31 18:36:24 -0400
Justy wants less homework, and Tommy the Commy wants longer recess. Hmmmm… On a more serious tone, I hope the Bloc regains some of the seats it lost to the Dpers last time. Go, Bloc, Go!
commented 2015-07-31 18:16:33 -0400
fraser, be wrong my friend. in your line up the coalition of the stupid rule the day. ……..sorry had to barf out that one.
commented 2015-07-31 18:16:30 -0400
fraser, be wrong my friend. in your line up the coalition of the stupid rule the day. ……..sorry had to barf out that one.
commented 2015-07-31 16:06:05 -0400
I don’t put much stock in Ipsos Reid polls any more, simply because I’ve been surveyed many times by them in the past and their questions are very often slanted in such a way that the answer options provided are seemingly tailored to advance a specific agenda. This happened so often that I once lodged a complaint about it (they weren’t at all receptive, BTW), and I now refuse to engage with them at all.
commented 2015-07-31 14:14:05 -0400
We tend to forget that the polls usually trend falsely in favour of the left; Stephen Harper said that the only polls that count are the ones on election day. How true.
commented 2015-07-31 10:55:13 -0400
Fraser McBurney : I think you are giving the NDP too much credit. You are forgetting about ‘Angry Tom’; The angry little man we haven’t seen in a while, who during the debates will reveal his true colours and will effectively shoo millennials, particularly feminists back to the liberals. Justin Trudeau will make himself appear as Prince Charming in order to make it happen. I also predict a CPC minority, but with the LPC as opposition instead.
commented 2015-07-30 20:13:46 -0400
Just Read the NDP Constitution Folks . . . it reads like a chapter out of the tales of Karl Marx . . . the problem with “Socialism” is that there is a trail of destruction all over the world today . . . from Greece to the failing countries of the EU to the Failing Province of Ontar-i-owe, Manitoba and now Alberta.
Careful what you wish for folks . . . you just might get it ! ! !
Are you listening Jimmy da Clueless ?
commented 2015-07-30 17:58:58 -0400
Deborah. Thanks for the link. Very interesting article. If the rumored early writ drop is true, a longer campaign will certainly allow for more point / counterpoint thus highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of each leader and party. Costs of promises will be analysed and presented. Actual policy will be up for debate and comparison. The Socialist Media will be in a tizzy trying to control the messaging. It ought to be fun!
commented 2015-07-30 15:38:30 -0400
Lets have a little contest and fun REBELS with each losers contributing $ to Ezra Defence Fund $10 each
NOVA SCOTIA……………….11 SEATS = 4 LIB = 2 = NDP = 5 CON
QUEBEC………………………….78 SEATS = 8 BLOC = 7 LIB = 4 CON = 59 NDP
ONTARIO……………………..121 SEATS = 66 CON = 43 NDP = 12 LIB
MANITOBA ……………………14 SEATS =11 CON = 2 NDP = 1 LIB
ALBERTA…………………………..34 SEATS = 32 CON = 2 NDP
YUKON………………………………1 SEAT = 1 CON
NUNUVAT…………………………..1 SEAT = 1 CON
N.D.P. =132
BLOC = 8
commented 2015-07-30 15:18:45 -0400
The television ads seem to work somewhat. In the provincial election of Ontario this is part of what destroyed the conservatives and helped the liberals win. Currently, the ad, put out by the nurses or whoever, is going after the conservatives regarding health care saying Harper won’t be there for anybody. This is going to hurt the conservatives again I believe. The conservative ad is weaker, saying Trudeau isn’t ready to be a leader, compared to this health care one which is stronger. Conservatives need a stronger television ad to win more votes.
commented 2015-07-30 10:09:28 -0400
True North, good post. However, once Canadians can see those result and understand their mistake, the damage is already done. They don’t seem to see those type of results as evidenced in the provinces, hence the devastating Alberta election results.

Overall it appears people vote based upon emotion, not facts. So maybe that is what the Conservatives have to do, play to the emotions of the people. But if they do, watch the left cry foul because that will be taking political plays straight from the leftist handbook for dirty politics.
commented 2015-07-30 09:07:37 -0400
The reality is that in tough economic times, when people are out of work, they will always vote for the guys who promise them the most free stuff. The NDP are a one trick pony and that is their trick. When it becomes clear that an NDP government will bless Canadians with higher taxes, a carbon tax, a complete surrender of our sovereignty to the U.N. global warming gang, a further erosion of our rights and freedoms, a continuing encouragement of the activist judiciary, a complete collapse of the Canadian dollar, a complete collapse of Canadian exports due to the high costs of doing business in a country ruled by the unions and all the other benefits we have seen the NDP bestow on various provinces, Canadians will come to their senses and Mulcair and his joke party will be returned to their historic place in the Canadian political world.
commented 2015-07-30 08:34:30 -0400
Bill said, "Mulcair is by far the better leader and ready to assume a responsible roll in government. "

Yes, between Justin and Mulcair, Mulcair is certainly the more mature by a long shot. For me, though, it is the NDP policies and track record with the economy of the provinces in which they governed that make me fearful of Mulcair as PM. He would take us down the road of Greece, a socialist “heaven” until the money runs out and the Canadian economy dives into a depression.
commented 2015-07-30 07:31:48 -0400
Polls are just a measurement of the effectiveness of corporate political PR (read: propaganda) and how much the superficial voter has taken the bait and from which brand’s fraud squad. If you can believe even a minutia of these corporate pollsters, it appears that intense advertising is less effective in moving the vote to Mulcair than the perception of Liberal supporters. Mulcair has advertised very little – so the motivation for mobilizing the left voter to abandon Trudeau seems to be confidence in leadership. I have to agree, IF I were ever to vote left, Mulcair is by far the better leader and ready to assume a responsible roll in government.

Just the same I think He has peeked and the long standing trend of the CCPC picking up 6-8% more than the polls say in the final week will give us a minority Harper government – and minority government stands to be a real cluster frig for running the nation. Partisan infighting and out fighting consumes all their time.
commented 2015-07-30 01:58:59 -0400
JIMMY DA SILVA… sorry, America did not have an election in 2015…. (edit ‘win’ in UK, not ‘won’)
commented 2015-07-29 23:37:57 -0400
Sorry – Israel.

I care enough to spell it properly.
commented 2015-07-29 23:36:50 -0400

You forgot America. Who gives a shit about Isreal or the UK?
commented 2015-07-29 21:41:01 -0400
If an NDipper from France wins we can always immigrate to Panama.
commented 2015-07-29 21:18:35 -0400
2015… lefties thought they were sure to won in UK….. they lost
2015… lefties thought they were sure to win in Israel… they lost
2015… lefties thought they were sure to win in Canada… TBA
I can see a hat-trick coming ☺